KSTL / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

71%

55%

34%

28%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 50.4¢Risks 50.35u

EPSNO 49.6¢Risks 49.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +49.65u · EPS −49.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T11:02:51+00:00	69.3%	25.9%	64.5%	59.2%	1.5%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	69.3%	25.9%	64.5%	59.2%	1.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:47+00:00	69.3%	25.9%	64.5%	59.2%	1.5%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	69.3%	25.9%	64.5%	59.2%	1.5%
2026-10-18T14:04:11+00:00	69.9%	25.9%	64.5%	59.2%	1.5%
2026-10-18T14:55:56+00:00	69.9%	25.9%	64.5%	59.2%	1.5%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	69.9%	23.0%	64.5%	59.2%	1.5%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00	69.9%	23.0%	64.5%	59.2%	1.5%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	69.9%	23.0%	62.3%	59.2%	1.5%
2026-10-18T17:57:30+00:00	69.9%	23.0%	62.3%	59.2%	1.5%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	69.9%	23.0%	62.3%	59.2%	1.5%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	68.7%	23.0%	62.3%	40.2%	56.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	68.7%	23.0%	62.3%	40.2%	56.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	68.7%	23.0%	62.3%	40.2%	56.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	68.7%	23.0%	62.3%	40.2%	56.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:33+00:00	68.7%	23.0%	62.3%	40.2%	56.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	68.7%	23.0%	65.9%	40.2%	56.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00	68.7%	23.0%	65.9%	40.2%	56.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	68.7%	23.0%	65.9%	40.2%	56.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00	69.3%	23.0%	65.9%	40.2%	56.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	69.3%	23.0%	65.9%	40.2%	56.3%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	69.3%	23.0%	65.9%	40.2%	56.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	69.3%	23.0%	65.9%	40.2%	56.3%
2026-10-19T15:13:41+00:00	65.1%	27.8%	71.1%	51.2%	53.9%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	65.1%	27.8%	71.1%	51.2%	53.9%
2026-10-19T16:44:21+00:00	65.1%	27.8%	71.1%	51.2%	53.9%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	65.1%	27.8%	63.4%	51.2%	53.9%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	65.1%	27.8%	63.4%	51.2%	53.9%
2026-10-19T19:00:07+00:00	65.1%	27.8%	63.4%	51.2%	53.9%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	70.4%	27.8%	63.4%	33.5%	55.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	70.4%	27.8%	63.4%	33.5%	55.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	70.4%	27.8%	63.4%	33.5%	55.0%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	70.4%	27.8%	63.4%	33.5%	55.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	70.4%	27.8%	63.4%	33.5%	55.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	70.4%	27.8%	71.1%	33.5%	55.0%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	70.4%	27.8%	71.1%	33.5%	55.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	70.4%	27.8%	71.1%	33.5%	55.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	72.9%	27.8%	71.1%	33.5%	55.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	72.9%	27.8%	71.1%	33.5%	55.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00	72.9%	27.8%	71.1%	33.5%	55.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	73%	80.8°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	71%	80.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	55%	78.4°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	78.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	78.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	74.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	28%	74.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261025-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 78°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗