KSTL / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

52%

46%

41%

17%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 38.6¢Risks 38.55u

HRESNO 61.5¢Risks 61.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +61.45u · HRES −61.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	—	—	—	14.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	—	—	—	17.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—	—	23.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	56.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	60.8%	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	—	1.1%	—	—	27.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	34.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	6.0%	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	51.3%	0.0%	33.6%	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	45.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	43.7%	24.1%	26.9%	0.5%	—	19.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	31.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	29.1%	43.4%	14.0%	26.6%	24.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	46.3%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	60%	78.0°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	77.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	52%	77.1°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	76.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	41%	75.3°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	70.3°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261026-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 77°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗