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KSTL / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
60%
ICON
52%
EPS
46%
WN2
41%
HRES
17%
Consensus
43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 38.6¢Risks 38.55u
VS
HRESNO 61.5¢Risks 61.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +61.45u · HRES −61.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 73.4% · 2026-10-19T11:21:01+00:00AIFS Single: 73.4% · 2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00AIFS Single: 73.4% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00AIFS Single: 58.3% · 2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00AIFS Single: 58.3% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00AIFS Single: 58.3% · 2026-10-19T15:13:41+00:00AIFS Single: 58.3% · 2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00AIFS Single: 58.3% · 2026-10-19T16:44:21+00:00AIFS Single: 58.3% · 2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00AIFS Single: 58.3% · 2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00AIFS Single: 58.3% · 2026-10-19T19:00:07+00:00AIFS Single: 67.5% · 2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00AIFS Single: 67.5% · 2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00AIFS Single: 67.5% · 2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00AIFS Single: 67.5% · 2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00AIFS Single: 67.5% · 2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00AIFS Single: 67.5% · 2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00AIFS Single: 67.5% · 2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00AIFS Single: 67.5% · 2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00AIFS Single: 60.3% · 2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00AIFS Single: 60.3% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00AIFS Single: 60.3% · 2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.4% · 2026-10-19T11:21:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.4% · 2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.4% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.4% · 2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.4% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-19T15:13:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-19T16:44:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-19T19:00:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.5% · 2026-10-19T11:21:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.5% · 2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.5% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.5% · 2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.5% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.5% · 2026-10-19T15:13:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.5% · 2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.5% · 2026-10-19T16:44:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.0% · 2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.0% · 2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.0% · 2026-10-19T19:00:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.0% · 2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.0% · 2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.0% · 2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.0% · 2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.0% · 2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.7% · 2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.7% · 2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.7% · 2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.7% · 2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.7% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.7% · 2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-19T11:21:01+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-19T15:13:41+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-19T16:44:21+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-19T19:00:07+00:00IFS HRES: 16.8% · 2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00IFS HRES: 16.8% · 2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00IFS HRES: 16.8% · 2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00IFS HRES: 16.8% · 2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00IFS HRES: 16.8% · 2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00IFS HRES: 16.8% · 2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00IFS HRES: 16.8% · 2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00IFS HRES: 16.8% · 2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00IFS HRES: 16.8% · 2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00IFS HRES: 16.8% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00IFS HRES: 16.8% · 2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00ICON: 6.1% · 2026-10-19T11:21:01+00:00ICON: 6.1% · 2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00ICON: 6.1% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00ICON: 6.1% · 2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00ICON: 6.1% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00ICON: 6.1% · 2026-10-19T15:13:41+00:00ICON: 6.1% · 2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00ICON: 6.1% · 2026-10-19T16:44:21+00:00ICON: 6.1% · 2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00ICON: 6.1% · 2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00ICON: 6.1% · 2026-10-19T19:00:07+00:00ICON: 52.4% · 2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00ICON: 52.4% · 2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00ICON: 52.4% · 2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00ICON: 52.4% · 2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00ICON: 52.4% · 2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00ICON: 52.4% · 2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00ICON: 52.4% · 2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00ICON: 52.4% · 2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00ICON: 52.4% · 2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00ICON: 52.4% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00ICON: 52.4% · 2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:0010-19 11:2110-19 19:4510-20 03:18
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T11:21:01+00:0073.4%46.4%58.5%50.6%6.1%
2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:0073.4%46.4%58.5%50.6%6.1%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:0073.4%46.4%58.5%50.6%6.1%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:0058.3%46.4%58.5%50.6%6.1%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:0058.3%46.4%58.5%50.6%6.1%
2026-10-19T15:13:41+00:0058.3%46.5%58.5%50.6%6.1%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:0058.3%46.5%58.5%50.6%6.1%
2026-10-19T16:44:21+00:0058.3%46.5%58.5%50.6%6.1%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:0058.3%46.5%24.0%50.6%6.1%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:0058.3%46.5%24.0%50.6%6.1%
2026-10-19T19:00:07+00:0058.3%46.5%24.0%50.6%6.1%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:0067.5%46.5%24.0%16.8%52.4%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:0067.5%46.5%24.0%16.8%52.4%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:0067.5%46.5%24.0%16.8%52.4%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:0067.5%46.5%24.0%16.8%52.4%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:0067.5%46.5%24.0%16.8%52.4%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:0067.5%46.5%40.7%16.8%52.4%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:0067.5%46.5%40.7%16.8%52.4%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:0067.5%46.5%40.7%16.8%52.4%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:0060.3%46.5%40.7%16.8%52.4%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:0060.3%46.5%40.7%16.8%52.4%
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:0060.3%46.5%40.7%16.8%52.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single60%78.0°F5.7°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending
National Blend53%77.0°F7.7°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
ICON52%77.1°F10.0°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble46%76.1°F4.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 241%75.3°F5.1°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
IFS HRES17%70.3°F6.4°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261026-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 77°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗