KTPA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≤ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

32%

27%

14%

Consensus

15%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 19.1¢Risks 19.10u

EPSNO 80.9¢Risks 80.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +80.90u · EPS −80.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	—	—	—	20.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	—	—	—	28.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	92.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	42.8%	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	33.5%	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	46.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	77.9%	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	54.0%	—	87.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	65.2%	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	86.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	26.9%	36.2%	58.4%	63.1%	—	23.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	37.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	21.5%	56.6%	16.5%	—	19.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	33.7%	22.2%	35.1%	36.5%	—	23.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	29.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	23.6%	11.1%	19.5%	—	24.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	77.5%	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	11.6%	27.2%	20.7%	—	23.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	17.8%	44.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	48.2%	29.9%	81.6%	—	42.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	35.1%	17.8%	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	58.2%	33.9%	81.0%	—	70.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	54.7%	21.7%	—	—	61.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	60.6%	67.8%	29.6%	86.9%	—	69.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	20.4%	26.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	55.1%	56.1%	38.8%	51.0%	—	59.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	62.5%	61.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	14.3%	70.8%	18.3%	—	78.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	20.6%	57.8%	100.0%	—	67.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	53.5%	36.3%	50.0%	36.3%	—	47.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	48.8%	26.3%	50.0%	46.4%	—	51.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	16.6%	52.5%	61.1%	69.2%	47.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	37.3%	26.9%	56.4%	70.9%	—	52.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	16.5%	44.6%	66.9%	64.4%	52.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	41.7%	35.0%	47.2%	66.2%	—	50.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	29.3%	42.8%	16.3%	68.2%	45.7%	38.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	29.8%	24.8%	51.5%	—	36.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	33.1%	12.5%	8.9%	50.0%	37.6%	39.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	8.6%	7.9%	30.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	44%	79.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.1945
ICON	32%	80.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1056
IFS HRES	27%	80.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0718
NWS forecast	24%	80.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.0590
AIFS Single	14%	82.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0190
WeatherNext 2	8%	82.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0072
IFS Ensemble	6%	82.3°F	2.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0032

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 78°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261018-TMAX-LE78
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Tampa stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 78°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗