KTPA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≤ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

32%

27%

14%

Consensus

15%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 19.1¢Risks 19.10u

EPSNO 80.9¢Risks 80.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +80.90u · EPS −80.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:34+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:36+00:00	8.2%	0.7%	2.9%	30.9%	35.4%
2026-10-14T11:20:46+00:00	8.2%	7.8%	7.0%	30.9%	35.4%
2026-10-14T12:06:12+00:00	8.2%	7.8%	7.0%	30.9%	35.4%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	8.2%	7.8%	7.0%	30.9%	35.4%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	11.2%	7.8%	7.0%	30.9%	35.4%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	11.2%	7.8%	7.0%	30.9%	34.7%
2026-10-14T15:12:09+00:00	11.2%	7.3%	7.0%	30.9%	34.7%
2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00	11.2%	7.3%	7.0%	30.9%	34.7%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	11.2%	7.3%	7.0%	30.9%	34.7%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	11.2%	7.3%	17.3%	30.9%	34.7%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	11.2%	7.3%	17.3%	30.9%	34.7%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	11.2%	7.3%	17.3%	30.9%	34.7%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	19.8%	7.3%	17.3%	61.0%	43.4%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	19.8%	7.3%	17.3%	61.0%	43.4%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	19.8%	7.3%	17.3%	61.0%	43.4%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	19.8%	7.3%	17.3%	61.0%	43.4%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	19.8%	7.3%	17.3%	61.0%	43.4%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	19.8%	6.7%	16.7%	61.0%	43.4%
2026-10-15T00:14:40+00:00	19.8%	6.7%	16.7%	61.0%	43.4%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	19.8%	6.7%	16.7%	61.0%	43.4%
2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00	15.3%	6.7%	16.7%	61.0%	43.4%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	15.3%	6.7%	16.7%	61.0%	43.4%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	15.3%	6.7%	16.7%	61.0%	43.4%
2026-10-15T04:02:03+00:00	15.3%	6.7%	16.7%	61.0%	43.4%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	15.3%	6.7%	16.7%	61.0%	43.4%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	15.3%	6.7%	6.6%	61.0%	43.4%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	15.3%	6.7%	6.6%	61.0%	43.4%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	15.3%	6.7%	6.6%	61.0%	43.4%
2026-10-15T07:49:24+00:00	27.2%	6.7%	6.6%	54.5%	61.9%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	27.2%	6.7%	6.6%	54.5%	61.9%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	27.2%	6.7%	6.6%	54.5%	61.9%
2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00	27.2%	6.7%	6.6%	54.5%	61.9%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	27.2%	6.7%	6.6%	54.5%	61.9%
2026-10-15T11:39:13+00:00	27.2%	6.7%	6.9%	54.5%	61.9%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	27.2%	20.2%	6.9%	54.5%	61.9%
2026-10-15T13:10:13+00:00	27.2%	20.2%	6.9%	54.5%	61.9%
2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00	7.7%	20.5%	6.9%	54.5%	61.9%
2026-10-15T14:48:24+00:00	7.7%	20.5%	6.9%	54.5%	61.9%
2026-10-15T15:33:57+00:00	7.7%	18.3%	6.9%	54.5%	61.9%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	7.7%	18.3%	6.9%	54.5%	61.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	7.7%	18.3%	4.3%	54.5%	61.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	7.7%	18.3%	4.3%	54.5%	61.9%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	7.7%	18.3%	4.3%	54.5%	61.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	7.7%	18.3%	4.3%	54.5%	61.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	22.7%	18.3%	4.3%	47.3%	49.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	22.7%	18.3%	4.3%	47.3%	49.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:42+00:00	22.7%	18.3%	4.3%	47.3%	49.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	22.7%	18.3%	4.3%	47.3%	49.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00	22.7%	18.3%	8.6%	47.3%	49.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	22.7%	18.3%	8.6%	47.3%	49.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	22.7%	18.3%	8.6%	47.3%	49.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:42+00:00	20.0%	18.3%	8.6%	47.3%	49.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:17+00:00	20.0%	18.3%	8.6%	47.3%	49.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	20.0%	18.3%	8.6%	47.3%	49.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	20.0%	18.3%	8.6%	47.3%	49.0%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	20.0%	18.3%	8.6%	47.3%	49.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:26+00:00	20.0%	18.3%	8.2%	47.3%	49.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:54+00:00	20.0%	18.3%	8.2%	47.3%	49.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:02+00:00	20.0%	18.3%	8.2%	47.3%	49.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	18.8%	18.3%	8.2%	47.3%	15.5%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	18.8%	18.3%	8.2%	47.3%	15.5%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	18.8%	18.3%	8.2%	47.3%	15.5%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	18.8%	18.3%	8.2%	47.3%	15.5%
2026-10-16T10:26:55+00:00	18.8%	18.3%	8.2%	47.3%	15.5%
2026-10-16T11:12:13+00:00	18.8%	16.2%	7.8%	47.3%	15.5%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	18.8%	16.2%	7.8%	47.3%	15.5%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	18.8%	16.2%	7.8%	47.3%	15.5%
2026-10-16T13:28:17+00:00	17.5%	16.2%	7.8%	46.1%	15.5%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	17.5%	16.8%	7.8%	46.1%	15.5%
2026-10-16T15:05:25+00:00	17.5%	15.0%	7.8%	46.1%	15.5%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	17.5%	14.5%	7.8%	46.1%	15.5%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	17.5%	14.5%	7.8%	46.1%	15.5%
2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00	17.5%	14.5%	5.0%	46.1%	15.5%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	17.5%	14.5%	5.0%	46.1%	15.5%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	17.5%	14.5%	5.0%	46.1%	15.5%
2026-10-16T19:36:57+00:00	20.2%	14.5%	5.0%	46.1%	40.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	20.2%	14.5%	5.0%	46.1%	40.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	20.2%	14.5%	5.0%	46.1%	40.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00	20.2%	14.5%	5.0%	46.1%	40.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	20.2%	14.5%	5.0%	38.5%	40.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:24+00:00	20.2%	14.5%	6.5%	38.5%	40.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:17+00:00	20.2%	14.5%	6.5%	38.5%	40.0%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	20.2%	14.5%	6.5%	38.5%	40.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	17.5%	14.5%	6.5%	38.5%	40.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	17.5%	14.5%	6.5%	38.5%	40.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	17.5%	14.5%	6.5%	38.5%	40.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	17.5%	14.5%	6.5%	38.5%	40.0%
2026-10-17T04:41:27+00:00	17.5%	14.5%	6.5%	38.5%	40.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	17.5%	14.5%	5.3%	38.5%	40.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	17.5%	14.5%	5.3%	38.5%	40.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	17.5%	14.5%	5.3%	38.5%	40.0%
2026-10-17T07:44:12+00:00	13.3%	14.5%	5.3%	34.3%	30.5%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	13.3%	14.5%	5.3%	34.3%	30.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00	13.3%	14.5%	5.3%	34.3%	30.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	13.3%	14.5%	5.3%	34.3%	30.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	13.3%	14.5%	5.3%	34.3%	30.5%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	13.3%	6.2%	7.4%	34.3%	30.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	13.3%	6.2%	7.4%	34.3%	30.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	13.3%	6.2%	7.4%	34.3%	30.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00	11.7%	6.2%	7.4%	34.3%	30.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	11.6%	6.2%	7.4%	34.3%	30.5%
2026-10-17T15:24:32+00:00	11.6%	5.7%	7.4%	34.3%	30.5%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	11.6%	5.7%	7.4%	34.3%	30.5%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	11.6%	5.7%	7.0%	34.3%	30.5%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	11.6%	5.7%	7.0%	34.3%	30.5%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	11.6%	5.7%	7.0%	34.3%	30.5%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	11.6%	5.7%	7.0%	34.3%	30.5%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	11.2%	5.7%	7.0%	26.8%	32.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	11.2%	5.7%	7.0%	26.8%	32.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	11.2%	5.7%	7.0%	26.8%	32.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	11.2%	5.7%	7.0%	26.8%	32.5%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	11.2%	5.7%	7.0%	26.8%	32.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	11.2%	5.7%	7.0%	26.8%	32.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	11.2%	5.7%	7.0%	26.8%	32.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	11.2%	5.7%	7.0%	26.8%	32.5%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	13.8%	5.7%	7.0%	26.8%	32.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:20+00:00	13.8%	5.7%	7.0%	26.8%	32.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	13.8%	5.7%	7.0%	26.8%	32.5%
2026-10-18T04:13:50+00:00	13.8%	5.7%	7.0%	26.8%	32.5%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	13.8%	5.7%	8.5%	26.8%	32.5%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	13.8%	5.7%	8.5%	26.8%	32.5%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	13.8%	5.7%	8.5%	26.8%	32.5%
2026-10-18T07:15:34+00:00	13.8%	5.7%	8.5%	26.8%	32.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	44%	79.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.1945
ICON	32%	80.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1056
IFS HRES	27%	80.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0718
NWS forecast	24%	80.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.0590
AIFS Single	14%	82.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0190
WeatherNext 2	8%	82.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0072
IFS Ensemble	6%	82.3°F	2.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0032

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 78°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261018-TMAX-LE78
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Tampa stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 78°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗