KTPA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 81°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

95%

92%

86%

72%

Consensus

95%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 85.4¢Risks 85.40u

ICONNO 14.6¢Risks 14.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +14.60u · ICON −14.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	60.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	—	—	—	61.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	—	—	—	61.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	41.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	0.3%	—	—	71.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	23.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	65.9%	—	—	—	—	65.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	22.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	59.0%	—	—	69.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	79.7%	—	64.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	76.2%	27.1%	85.7%	—	—	75.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	76.1%	—	80.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	75.9%	58.4%	69.5%	26.9%	—	69.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	77.4%	68.3%	73.4%	79.5%	—	74.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	77.3%	—	80.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	78.9%	89.7%	76.6%	77.8%	—	72.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	71.5%	—	78.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	72.6%	83.7%	81.6%	45.2%	—	55.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	64.4%	19.5%	74.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	57.5%	58.3%	77.5%	17.8%	—	30.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	64.2%	75.4%	70.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	28.4%	57.8%	75.9%	21.4%	—	37.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	69.0%	82.8%	83.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.9%	67.0%	62.7%	75.6%	—	40.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	47.2%	62.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	82.3%	48.0%	82.3%	—	21.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	37.2%	62.8%	37.2%	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	61.2%	45.9%	74.9%	—	49.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	41.6%	64.5%	55.3%	—	—	43.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	43.5%	65.9%	40.3%	38.2%	0.3%	52.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	69.5%	71.4%	0.0%	—	44.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	41.9%	74.0%	64.8%	47.7%	33.1%	41.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	47.6%	60.7%	44.0%	—	35.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	38.9%	47.5%	73.4%	36.5%	0.7%	40.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	36.1%	26.9%	55.1%	46.1%	—	41.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	30.7%	34.3%	47.3%	36.8%	47.3%	39.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	36.3%	37.7%	44.4%	33.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	37.2%	61.4%	51.4%	54.3%	31.8%	45.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	48.5%	44.0%	51.5%	—	23.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	33.1%	48.4%	48.4%	18.1%	17.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	26.7%	28.1%	43.4%	—	25.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	85.7°F	2.2°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0001
WeatherNext 2	95%	88.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0029
AIFS Single	92%	88.6°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.0056
IFS HRES	86%	87.5°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0182
ICON	72%	86.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0801
National Blend	55%	81.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.2070

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261019-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 81°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗