KTPA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 81°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

95%

92%

86%

72%

Consensus

95%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 85.4¢Risks 85.40u

ICONNO 14.6¢Risks 14.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +14.60u · ICON −14.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:48:03+00:00	93.1%	94.2%	91.8%	84.0%	53.6%
2026-10-12T08:34:24+00:00	93.1%	94.2%	91.8%	84.0%	53.6%
2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00	93.1%	94.2%	91.8%	84.0%	53.6%
2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00	93.1%	94.2%	91.8%	84.0%	53.6%
2026-10-12T10:50:08+00:00	93.1%	94.2%	91.8%	84.0%	53.6%
2026-10-12T11:35:28+00:00	93.1%	94.2%	95.5%	84.0%	53.6%
2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00	93.1%	99.2%	95.5%	84.0%	53.6%
2026-10-12T13:05:54+00:00	93.1%	99.2%	95.5%	84.0%	53.6%
2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00	92.9%	99.2%	95.5%	84.0%	53.6%
2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00	92.8%	99.2%	95.4%	84.0%	53.6%
2026-10-12T15:26:51+00:00	92.8%	99.2%	95.4%	84.0%	53.6%
2026-10-12T16:12:55+00:00	92.8%	99.1%	95.4%	84.0%	53.6%
2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00	92.8%	99.1%	95.4%	84.0%	53.6%
2026-10-12T17:43:12+00:00	92.8%	99.1%	95.4%	84.0%	53.6%
2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00	92.8%	99.1%	95.4%	84.0%	53.6%
2026-10-12T19:13:25+00:00	92.8%	99.1%	95.4%	84.0%	53.6%
2026-10-12T19:58:32+00:00	92.5%	99.1%	95.4%	86.5%	71.8%
2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00	92.5%	99.1%	95.4%	86.5%	71.8%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	92.5%	99.1%	95.4%	86.5%	71.8%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	92.5%	99.1%	95.4%	86.5%	71.8%
2026-10-12T22:59:08+00:00	92.5%	99.1%	94.6%	86.5%	71.8%
2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00	92.5%	99.1%	94.6%	86.5%	71.8%
2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00	92.5%	99.1%	94.6%	86.5%	71.8%
2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00	92.5%	99.1%	94.6%	86.5%	71.7%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	92.5%	99.1%	94.6%	86.5%	71.7%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00	92.5%	99.1%	94.6%	86.5%	71.7%
2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00	92.5%	99.1%	94.6%	86.5%	71.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	85.7°F	2.2°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0001
WeatherNext 2	95%	88.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0029
AIFS Single	92%	88.6°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.0056
IFS HRES	86%	87.5°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0182
ICON	72%	86.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0801
National Blend	55%	81.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.2070

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261019-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 81°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗