KTPA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

68%

58%

35%

17%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 43.1¢Risks 43.15u

ICONNO 56.9¢Risks 56.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +56.85u · ICON −56.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:33:58+00:00	82.8%	69.1%	84.7%	26.7%	65.6%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	82.8%	69.1%	84.7%	26.7%	65.6%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	82.8%	69.1%	87.4%	26.7%	65.6%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	82.8%	69.1%	87.4%	26.7%	65.6%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	82.8%	69.1%	87.4%	26.7%	65.6%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	82.8%	69.1%	87.4%	26.7%	65.6%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	38.9%	69.1%	87.4%	42.5%	74.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	38.9%	69.1%	87.4%	42.5%	74.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:42+00:00	38.9%	69.1%	87.4%	42.5%	74.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	38.9%	69.1%	87.4%	42.5%	74.3%
2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00	38.9%	69.1%	83.5%	42.5%	74.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	38.9%	69.1%	83.5%	42.5%	74.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	38.9%	69.1%	83.5%	42.5%	74.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:42+00:00	52.4%	69.1%	83.5%	42.5%	74.3%
2026-10-16T02:08:17+00:00	52.4%	69.1%	83.5%	42.5%	74.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	52.4%	69.1%	83.5%	42.5%	74.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	52.4%	69.1%	83.5%	42.5%	74.3%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	52.4%	69.1%	83.5%	42.5%	74.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:26+00:00	52.4%	69.1%	78.2%	42.5%	74.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:54+00:00	52.4%	69.1%	78.2%	42.5%	74.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	52.4%	69.1%	78.2%	42.5%	74.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	40.5%	69.1%	78.2%	42.5%	56.5%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	40.5%	69.1%	78.2%	42.5%	56.5%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	40.5%	69.1%	78.2%	42.5%	56.5%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	40.5%	69.1%	78.2%	42.5%	56.5%
2026-10-16T10:26:55+00:00	40.5%	69.1%	78.2%	42.5%	56.5%
2026-10-16T11:12:13+00:00	40.5%	55.4%	79.0%	42.5%	56.5%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	40.5%	55.4%	79.0%	42.5%	56.5%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	40.5%	55.4%	79.0%	42.5%	56.5%
2026-10-16T13:28:17+00:00	47.4%	55.4%	79.0%	39.0%	56.5%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	47.4%	55.4%	79.0%	39.0%	56.5%
2026-10-16T15:05:25+00:00	47.4%	59.0%	79.0%	39.0%	56.5%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	47.4%	59.0%	79.0%	39.0%	56.5%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	47.4%	59.0%	79.0%	39.0%	56.5%
2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00	47.4%	59.0%	85.9%	39.0%	56.5%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	47.4%	59.0%	85.9%	39.0%	56.5%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	47.4%	59.0%	85.9%	39.0%	56.5%
2026-10-16T19:36:57+00:00	44.8%	59.0%	85.9%	39.0%	41.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	44.8%	59.0%	85.9%	39.0%	41.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	44.8%	59.0%	85.9%	39.0%	41.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00	44.8%	59.0%	85.9%	39.0%	41.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	44.8%	59.0%	85.9%	33.0%	41.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:24+00:00	44.8%	59.0%	79.8%	33.0%	41.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:17+00:00	44.8%	59.0%	79.8%	33.0%	41.0%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	44.8%	59.0%	79.8%	33.0%	41.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	48.3%	59.0%	79.8%	33.0%	41.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	48.3%	59.0%	79.8%	33.0%	41.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	48.3%	59.0%	79.8%	33.0%	41.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	48.3%	59.0%	79.8%	33.0%	41.0%
2026-10-19T04:30:34+00:00	46.1%	58.3%	55.1%	41.3%	13.1%
2026-10-19T05:17:01+00:00	46.1%	58.3%	58.9%	41.3%	13.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	46.1%	58.3%	58.9%	41.3%	13.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	46.1%	58.3%	58.9%	41.3%	13.1%
2026-10-19T07:32:55+00:00	53.0%	58.3%	58.9%	41.5%	5.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	53.0%	58.3%	58.9%	41.5%	5.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	53.0%	58.3%	58.9%	41.5%	5.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	53.0%	58.3%	58.9%	41.5%	5.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00	53.0%	58.3%	58.9%	41.5%	5.4%
2026-10-19T11:20:45+00:00	53.0%	59.9%	62.1%	41.5%	5.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00	53.0%	59.9%	62.1%	41.5%	5.4%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	53.0%	59.9%	62.1%	41.5%	5.4%
2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00	53.0%	59.9%	62.1%	41.5%	5.4%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	53.0%	59.9%	62.1%	41.5%	5.7%
2026-10-20T04:04:19+00:00	63.9%	58.3%	63.4%	35.3%	10.2%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	63.9%	58.3%	63.4%	35.3%	10.2%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00	63.9%	58.3%	69.7%	35.3%	10.2%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	63.9%	58.3%	69.7%	35.3%	10.2%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	63.9%	58.3%	69.7%	35.3%	10.2%
2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00	67.6%	58.3%	69.7%	35.3%	16.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	67.6%	58.3%	69.7%	35.3%	16.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	67.6%	58.3%	69.7%	35.3%	16.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	67.6%	58.3%	69.7%	35.3%	16.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	70%	83.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	68%	82.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	58%	82.0°F	2.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	81.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	35%	80.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	17%	78.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261020-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 82°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗