Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 82°F
Who takes which side?
Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.
Head-to-head preview
ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.
WN2 +56.85u · ICON −56.85u
These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →
Probability history
Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.
No model probability history is available for this view yet.
Forecasts & evidence
| MODEL | YES | MEAN | SPREAD σ | INITIALIZATION UTC | BRIER ↓ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WeatherNext 2 | 70% | 83.0°F | 2.9°F | 2026-10-19 18:00 | Pending |
| AIFS Single | 68% | 82.9°F | 3.1°F | 2026-10-20 00:00 | Pending |
| NWS forecast | 59% | 82.0°F | 2.2°F | 2026-10-20 03:00 | Pending |
| IFS Ensemble | 58% | 82.0°F | 2.4°F | 2026-10-19 00:00 | Pending |
| National Blend | 41% | 81.0°F | 2.2°F | 2026-10-20 00:00 | Pending |
| IFS HRES | 35% | 80.1°F | 3.7°F | 2026-10-19 12:00 | Pending |
| ICON | 17% | 78.1°F | 3.5°F | 2026-10-20 00:00 | Pending |
Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.
High ≥ 82°F · KTPA
Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.
WP-KTPA-20261020-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC
Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 82°F · Tue Oct 20
Original prop, full history & receipt ↗