KTPA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

68%

58%

35%

17%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 43.1¢Risks 43.15u

ICONNO 56.9¢Risks 56.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +56.85u · ICON −56.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	—	—	—	61.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	44.9%	—	—	—	—	68.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	6.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	69.7%	—	—	—	—	68.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	66.2%	—	41.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	67.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	86.1%	—	—	70.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	70.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	73.2%	—	49.4%	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	77.8%	—	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	26.0%	67.0%	—	—	70.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	79.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	72.5%	39.6%	82.5%	27.5%	—	70.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	78.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	72.2%	87.2%	83.5%	34.3%	—	57.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	75.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	46.2%	33.0%	84.9%	35.8%	—	35.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	45.3%	—	76.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	14.5%	47.6%	69.8%	33.0%	—	36.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	57.3%	14.4%	79.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	59.9%	60.7%	63.9%	—	39.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	23.3%	31.9%	65.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	42.2%	57.0%	50.0%	—	23.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	34.2%	36.8%	—	—	29.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	16.6%	25.9%	63.6%	49.1%	—	33.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	27.6%	57.5%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	31.3%	51.0%	50.0%	—	29.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	29.9%	56.0%	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	25.1%	35.9%	17.6%	0.6%	24.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	22.0%	44.7%	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	12.5%	14.9%	37.1%	20.6%	—	23.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	11.8%	41.0%	0.0%	—	20.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	14.0%	33.1%	16.0%	0.7%	23.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	15.2%	26.3%	16.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	8.5%	23.6%	21.7%	11.2%	22.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	12.2%	26.9%	20.9%	—	18.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	15.7%	13.4%	31.9%	23.0%	12.0%	19.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	22.1%	21.1%	39.0%	30.0%	—	21.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	33.1%	45.7%	40.0%	19.1%	21.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	42.5%	33.8%	—	12.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	70%	83.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	68%	82.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	58%	82.0°F	2.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	81.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	35%	80.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	17%	78.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261020-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 82°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗