KTPA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST89%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

93%

84%

79%

73%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 85.6¢Risks 85.60u

HRESNO 14.4¢Risks 14.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +14.40u · HRES −14.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	79.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	74.0%	—	68.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	83.4%	—	—	—	—	78.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	79.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	78.2%	—	65.4%	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	79.9%	—	86.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	—	—	—	75.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	79.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	46.9%	—	—	77.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	89.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	46.1%	—	—	80.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	89.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	40.6%	86.1%	—	—	70.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	56.3%	83.4%	36.9%	—	59.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	93.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	39.9%	63.6%	76.3%	64.3%	—	56.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	89.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	40.2%	72.4%	73.0%	71.7%	—	56.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	77.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	39.7%	58.7%	63.3%	84.6%	—	46.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	45.9%	4.5%	64.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	69.2%	74.9%	53.3%	—	57.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	46.6%	65.8%	76.7%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	44.8%	75.9%	62.9%	60.4%	—	61.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	50.9%	66.6%	70.6%	—	—	60.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	66.1%	75.6%	57.3%	—	55.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	55.7%	74.7%	—	—	56.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	59.6%	76.8%	58.7%	—	61.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	51.0%	69.2%	—	—	58.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	62.2%	64.1%	57.2%	—	59.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	62.5%	64.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	60.8%	58.7%	52.2%	—	59.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	57.8%	68.5%	0.0%	—	57.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	62.6%	66.9%	57.0%	0.7%	58.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	53.6%	61.9%	71.7%	57.2%	—	61.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	71.3%	78.3%	65.8%	66.9%	63.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	80.0%	69.8%	—	65.1%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	80.9%	—	0.6%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	83.6°F	2.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	93%	85.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	84%	84.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	83.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	81.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	73%	82.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261021-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 80°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗