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KTPA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST89%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
98%
WN2
93%
ICON
84%
AIFS
79%
HRES
73%
Consensus
89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 85.6¢Risks 85.60u
VS
HRESNO 14.4¢Risks 14.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +14.40u · HRES −14.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 74.1% · 2026-10-17T04:41:29+00:00AIFS Single: 74.1% · 2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00AIFS Single: 74.1% · 2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00AIFS Single: 74.1% · 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00AIFS Single: 74.4% · 2026-10-17T07:44:12+00:00AIFS Single: 74.4% · 2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00AIFS Single: 74.4% · 2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00AIFS Single: 74.4% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00AIFS Single: 74.4% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00AIFS Single: 74.4% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00AIFS Single: 74.4% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00AIFS Single: 74.4% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00AIFS Single: 79.0% · 2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00AIFS Single: 79.0% · 2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.7% · 2026-10-17T04:41:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.7% · 2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.7% · 2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.7% · 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.7% · 2026-10-17T07:44:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.7% · 2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.7% · 2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.7% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.7% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.0% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.0% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.0% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.0% · 2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.0% · 2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.4% · 2026-10-17T04:41:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.3% · 2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.3% · 2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.3% · 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.3% · 2026-10-17T07:44:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.3% · 2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.3% · 2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.3% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.3% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.4% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.4% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.4% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.4% · 2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.3% · 2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00IFS HRES: 68.6% · 2026-10-17T04:41:29+00:00IFS HRES: 68.6% · 2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00IFS HRES: 68.6% · 2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00IFS HRES: 68.6% · 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00IFS HRES: 73.2% · 2026-10-17T07:44:12+00:00IFS HRES: 73.2% · 2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00IFS HRES: 73.2% · 2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00IFS HRES: 73.2% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00IFS HRES: 73.2% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00IFS HRES: 73.2% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00IFS HRES: 73.2% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00IFS HRES: 73.2% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00IFS HRES: 73.2% · 2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00IFS HRES: 73.2% · 2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00ICON: 80.2% · 2026-10-17T04:41:29+00:00ICON: 80.2% · 2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00ICON: 80.2% · 2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00ICON: 80.2% · 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00ICON: 84.3% · 2026-10-17T07:44:12+00:00ICON: 84.3% · 2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00ICON: 84.3% · 2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00ICON: 84.3% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00ICON: 84.3% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00ICON: 84.3% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00ICON: 84.3% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00ICON: 84.3% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00ICON: 84.3% · 2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00ICON: 84.2% · 2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:0010-17 04:4110-17 10:0110-17 14:39
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T04:41:29+00:0074.1%95.7%93.4%68.6%80.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:0074.1%95.7%94.3%68.6%80.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:0074.1%95.7%94.3%68.6%80.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:0074.1%95.7%94.3%68.6%80.2%
2026-10-17T07:44:12+00:0074.4%95.7%94.3%73.2%84.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:0074.4%95.7%94.3%73.2%84.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:0074.4%95.7%94.3%73.2%84.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:0074.4%95.7%94.3%73.2%84.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:0074.4%95.7%94.3%73.2%84.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:0074.4%98.0%93.4%73.2%84.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:0074.4%98.0%93.4%73.2%84.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:0074.4%98.0%93.4%73.2%84.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:0079.0%98.0%93.4%73.2%84.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:0079.0%98.0%93.3%73.2%84.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble98%83.6°F2.0°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 293%85.1°F3.7°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
ICON84%84.4°F4.9°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
AIFS Single79%83.2°F4.6°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
National Blend75%81.0°F2.2°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
IFS HRES73%82.6°F5.0°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%80.0°F4.5°F2026-10-17 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261021-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 80°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗