KTPA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

64%

54%

30%

21%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 47.4¢Risks 47.45u

ICONNO 52.6¢Risks 52.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +52.55u · ICON −52.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	63.5%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	33.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	70.1%	—	—	—	—	62.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	70.2%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	67.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	71.8%	—	—	—	—	71.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	77.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	74.1%	—	—	54.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	70.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	79.8%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	72.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	3.1%	58.1%	—	—	46.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	77.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	55.6%	50.0%	32.3%	—	38.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	39.9%	50.7%	39.9%	51.5%	—	33.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	43.2%	57.6%	46.9%	—	33.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	42.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	59.5%	33.7%	42.9%	—	33.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	1.1%	45.1%	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	53.3%	37.7%	39.3%	—	22.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	25.3%	39.8%	—	—	24.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	26.9%	35.4%	49.1%	46.5%	—	27.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	23.5%	36.8%	45.5%	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	36.4%	50.9%	33.9%	—	30.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	39.7%	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	33.0%	42.3%	30.4%	—	29.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	16.4%	21.9%	42.0%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	17.0%	24.3%	41.8%	25.1%	—	19.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	17.6%	22.8%	41.6%	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	23.0%	41.3%	34.1%	16.9%	19.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	18.3%	—	34.6%	0.0%	—	17.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	74%	83.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	64%	82.3°F	2.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	82.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	81.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	79.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	24%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	21%	78.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261022-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 82°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗