KTPA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

64%

54%

30%

21%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 47.4¢Risks 47.45u

ICONNO 52.6¢Risks 52.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +52.55u · ICON −52.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T11:39:13+00:00	44.3%	92.2%	85.0%	29.6%	26.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:00	44.3%	81.8%	85.0%	29.6%	26.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:14+00:00	44.3%	81.8%	85.0%	29.6%	26.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00	73.6%	81.8%	84.7%	29.8%	26.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:24+00:00	73.6%	81.8%	84.7%	29.8%	26.0%
2026-10-15T15:33:59+00:00	73.6%	83.0%	84.7%	29.8%	26.0%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	73.6%	83.0%	84.7%	29.8%	26.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	73.6%	83.0%	85.2%	29.8%	26.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	73.6%	83.0%	85.2%	29.8%	26.0%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	73.6%	83.0%	85.2%	29.8%	26.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	73.6%	83.0%	85.2%	29.8%	26.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	64.4%	83.0%	85.2%	40.7%	70.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	64.4%	83.0%	85.2%	40.7%	70.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:42+00:00	64.4%	83.0%	85.2%	40.7%	70.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	64.4%	83.0%	85.2%	40.7%	70.7%
2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00	64.4%	83.0%	79.0%	40.7%	70.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	64.3%	83.0%	79.0%	40.8%	70.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	64.3%	83.0%	79.0%	40.8%	70.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:43+00:00	62.4%	83.0%	79.0%	40.8%	70.7%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	62.4%	83.0%	79.0%	40.8%	70.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	62.4%	83.0%	79.0%	40.8%	70.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	62.4%	83.0%	79.0%	40.8%	70.7%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	62.4%	83.0%	79.0%	40.8%	70.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:26+00:00	62.4%	83.0%	80.1%	40.8%	70.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:55+00:00	62.4%	83.0%	80.1%	40.8%	70.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	62.4%	83.0%	80.1%	40.8%	70.7%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	67.2%	83.0%	80.1%	40.8%	69.9%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	67.2%	83.0%	80.1%	40.8%	69.9%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	67.2%	83.0%	80.1%	40.8%	69.9%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	67.2%	83.0%	80.1%	40.8%	69.9%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	67.2%	83.0%	80.1%	40.8%	69.9%
2026-10-16T11:12:13+00:00	67.2%	63.7%	83.2%	40.8%	69.9%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	67.2%	63.7%	83.2%	40.8%	69.9%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	67.2%	63.7%	83.2%	40.8%	69.9%
2026-10-16T13:28:17+00:00	64.5%	63.7%	83.2%	36.4%	69.9%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	64.4%	63.7%	83.2%	36.4%	70.3%
2026-10-16T15:05:25+00:00	64.4%	66.6%	83.2%	36.4%	70.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	64.4%	66.6%	83.2%	36.4%	70.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	64.4%	66.6%	83.2%	36.4%	70.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00	64.4%	66.6%	85.8%	36.4%	70.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	64.4%	66.6%	85.8%	36.4%	70.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	64.4%	66.6%	85.8%	36.4%	70.3%
2026-10-16T19:36:57+00:00	55.9%	66.6%	85.8%	36.4%	65.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	55.9%	66.6%	85.8%	36.4%	65.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	55.9%	66.6%	85.8%	36.4%	65.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00	55.9%	66.6%	85.8%	36.4%	65.3%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	55.9%	66.6%	85.8%	32.5%	65.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:24+00:00	55.9%	66.6%	82.7%	32.5%	65.3%
2026-10-17T00:09:17+00:00	55.9%	66.6%	82.7%	32.5%	65.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	55.9%	66.6%	82.7%	32.5%	65.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	57.3%	66.6%	82.7%	32.5%	65.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	57.3%	66.6%	82.7%	32.5%	65.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	57.3%	66.6%	82.7%	32.5%	65.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	57.3%	66.6%	82.7%	32.5%	65.3%
2026-10-20T04:04:19+00:00	50.9%	66.3%	71.4%	27.2%	30.8%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	50.9%	66.3%	71.4%	27.2%	30.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00	50.9%	66.3%	74.4%	27.2%	30.8%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	50.9%	66.3%	74.4%	27.2%	30.8%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	50.9%	66.3%	74.4%	27.2%	30.8%
2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00	53.9%	66.3%	74.4%	27.2%	20.0%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	53.9%	66.3%	74.4%	27.2%	20.0%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	53.9%	66.3%	74.4%	27.2%	20.0%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	53.9%	66.3%	74.4%	27.2%	20.0%
2026-10-20T10:53:21+00:00	53.9%	63.6%	74.1%	30.4%	20.0%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00	53.9%	63.6%	74.1%	30.4%	20.0%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	53.9%	63.6%	74.1%	30.4%	20.0%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00	53.9%	63.6%	74.1%	30.4%	20.0%
2026-10-20T13:55:11+00:00	53.9%	63.6%	74.1%	30.4%	20.8%
2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00	53.9%	63.6%	74.1%	30.4%	20.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	74%	83.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	64%	82.3°F	2.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	82.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	81.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	79.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	24%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	21%	78.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261022-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 82°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗