KTPA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST5%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

24%

22%

17%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 13.3¢Risks 13.30u

EPSNO 86.7¢Risks 86.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +86.70u · EPS −86.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	18.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	11.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	21.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	4.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	—	—	—	13.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	7.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	21.7%	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	12.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.9%	0.4%	27.1%	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	14.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	13.4%	30.5%	3.1%	—	7.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	4.4%	16.5%	13.6%	—	11.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	6.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	5.2%	12.9%	17.4%	—	15.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	13.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	5.3%	12.7%	7.8%	—	10.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	0.0%	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	2.7%	15.7%	16.2%	—	8.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	5.4%	22.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	4.1%	16.1%	15.1%	18.4%	7.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	17.8%	—	—	5.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	24%	84.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	83.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	17%	83.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	11%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
ICON	10%	81.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	3%	83.4°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	82.0°F	2.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261024-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Tampa runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗