KTPA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST5%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

24%

22%

17%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 13.3¢Risks 13.30u

EPSNO 86.7¢Risks 86.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +86.70u · EPS −86.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T15:31:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:44:14+00:00	25.4%	3.1%	42.0%	15.0%	13.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	25.4%	3.1%	42.0%	15.0%	13.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00	25.4%	3.1%	42.0%	15.0%	13.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	25.4%	3.1%	42.0%	15.0%	13.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	25.4%	3.1%	42.0%	15.0%	13.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	25.4%	2.8%	43.0%	15.0%	13.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	25.4%	2.8%	43.0%	15.0%	13.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	25.4%	2.8%	43.0%	15.0%	13.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00	27.1%	2.8%	43.0%	15.0%	13.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	27.1%	2.8%	43.0%	14.9%	13.9%
2026-10-17T15:24:32+00:00	27.1%	2.8%	43.0%	14.9%	13.9%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	27.1%	2.8%	43.0%	14.9%	13.9%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	27.1%	2.8%	39.2%	14.9%	13.9%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	27.1%	2.8%	39.2%	14.9%	13.9%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	27.1%	2.8%	39.2%	14.9%	13.9%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	27.1%	2.8%	39.2%	14.9%	13.9%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	23.8%	2.8%	39.2%	10.2%	43.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	23.8%	2.8%	39.2%	10.2%	43.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	23.8%	2.8%	39.2%	10.2%	43.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	23.8%	2.8%	39.2%	10.2%	43.6%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	23.8%	2.8%	32.6%	10.2%	43.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	23.8%	2.8%	32.6%	10.2%	43.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	23.8%	2.8%	32.6%	10.2%	43.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	23.8%	2.8%	32.6%	10.2%	43.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	27.7%	2.8%	32.6%	10.2%	43.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:20+00:00	27.7%	2.8%	32.6%	10.2%	43.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	27.7%	2.8%	32.6%	10.2%	43.6%
2026-10-18T04:13:52+00:00	27.7%	2.8%	32.6%	10.2%	43.6%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	27.7%	2.8%	34.8%	10.2%	43.6%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	27.7%	2.8%	34.8%	10.2%	43.6%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	27.7%	2.8%	34.8%	10.2%	43.6%
2026-10-18T07:15:34+00:00	27.7%	2.8%	34.8%	10.2%	43.6%
2026-10-18T08:01:03+00:00	17.8%	2.8%	34.8%	19.8%	21.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	17.8%	2.8%	34.8%	19.8%	21.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	17.8%	2.8%	34.8%	19.8%	21.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	17.8%	2.8%	34.8%	19.8%	21.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:39+00:00	17.8%	2.6%	30.4%	19.8%	21.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	17.8%	2.6%	30.4%	19.8%	21.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	17.8%	2.6%	30.4%	19.8%	21.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	17.8%	2.6%	30.4%	19.8%	21.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	20.3%	2.8%	30.4%	19.8%	21.7%
2026-10-18T14:55:40+00:00	20.3%	2.8%	30.4%	19.8%	21.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	20.3%	2.5%	30.4%	19.8%	21.7%
2026-10-18T16:26:53+00:00	20.3%	2.5%	30.4%	19.8%	21.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	20.3%	2.5%	22.7%	19.8%	21.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:21+00:00	20.3%	2.5%	22.7%	19.8%	21.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	20.3%	2.5%	22.7%	19.8%	21.7%
2026-10-18T19:27:55+00:00	21.3%	2.5%	22.7%	33.0%	25.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	21.3%	2.5%	22.7%	33.0%	25.1%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	21.3%	2.5%	22.7%	33.0%	25.1%
2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00	21.3%	2.5%	22.7%	33.0%	25.1%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	21.3%	2.5%	22.7%	33.0%	25.1%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	21.3%	2.5%	23.3%	33.0%	25.1%
2026-10-18T23:58:50+00:00	21.3%	2.5%	23.3%	33.0%	25.1%
2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00	21.3%	2.5%	23.3%	33.0%	25.1%
2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00	24.1%	2.5%	23.3%	33.0%	25.1%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	24.1%	2.5%	23.3%	33.0%	25.1%
2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:00	24.1%	2.5%	23.3%	33.0%	25.1%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	24.1%	2.5%	23.3%	33.0%	25.1%
2026-10-19T04:30:35+00:00	24.1%	2.5%	23.3%	33.0%	25.1%
2026-10-19T05:17:01+00:00	24.1%	2.5%	23.3%	33.0%	25.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	24.1%	2.5%	23.3%	33.0%	25.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	24.1%	2.5%	23.3%	33.0%	25.1%
2026-10-19T07:32:55+00:00	25.2%	2.5%	23.3%	25.6%	18.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	25.2%	2.5%	23.3%	25.6%	18.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	25.2%	2.5%	23.3%	25.6%	18.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	25.2%	2.5%	23.3%	25.6%	18.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00	25.2%	2.5%	23.3%	25.6%	18.9%
2026-10-19T11:20:45+00:00	25.2%	3.2%	18.4%	25.6%	18.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00	25.2%	3.2%	18.4%	25.6%	18.9%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	25.2%	3.2%	18.4%	25.6%	18.9%
2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00	22.1%	3.2%	18.4%	25.6%	18.9%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	22.1%	3.2%	18.4%	25.5%	18.8%
2026-10-19T15:13:24+00:00	22.1%	2.8%	18.4%	25.5%	18.8%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	22.1%	2.8%	18.4%	25.5%	18.8%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	22.1%	2.8%	18.4%	25.5%	18.8%
2026-10-19T17:29:28+00:00	22.1%	2.8%	24.0%	25.5%	18.8%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	22.1%	2.8%	24.0%	25.5%	18.8%
2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00	22.1%	2.8%	24.0%	25.5%	18.8%
2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00	24.6%	2.8%	24.0%	11.3%	14.3%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	24.6%	2.8%	24.0%	11.3%	14.3%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	24.6%	2.8%	24.0%	11.3%	14.3%
2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00	24.6%	2.8%	24.0%	11.3%	14.3%
2026-10-19T22:46:11+00:00	24.6%	2.8%	24.0%	11.3%	14.3%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	24.6%	2.8%	22.5%	11.3%	14.3%
2026-10-20T00:16:46+00:00	24.6%	2.8%	22.5%	11.3%	14.3%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	24.6%	2.8%	22.5%	11.3%	14.3%
2026-10-20T01:47:44+00:00	23.3%	2.8%	22.5%	11.3%	14.3%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	23.3%	2.8%	22.5%	11.3%	14.3%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	23.3%	2.8%	22.5%	11.3%	14.3%
2026-10-20T04:04:19+00:00	23.3%	2.8%	22.5%	11.3%	14.3%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	23.3%	2.8%	22.5%	11.3%	14.3%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00	23.3%	2.8%	23.3%	11.3%	14.3%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	23.3%	2.8%	23.3%	11.3%	14.3%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	23.3%	2.8%	23.3%	11.3%	14.3%
2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00	23.6%	2.8%	23.3%	11.3%	10.1%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	23.6%	2.8%	23.3%	11.3%	10.1%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	23.6%	2.8%	23.3%	11.3%	10.1%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	23.6%	2.8%	23.3%	11.3%	10.1%
2026-10-20T10:53:21+00:00	23.6%	3.5%	16.7%	22.4%	10.1%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00	23.6%	3.5%	16.7%	22.4%	10.1%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	23.6%	3.5%	16.7%	22.4%	10.1%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00	23.6%	3.5%	16.7%	22.4%	10.1%
2026-10-20T13:55:11+00:00	23.5%	3.5%	16.7%	22.3%	10.1%
2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00	23.5%	3.5%	16.7%	22.3%	10.1%
2026-10-20T15:31:43+00:00	23.5%	3.1%	16.7%	22.3%	10.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	24%	84.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	83.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	17%	83.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	11%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
ICON	10%	81.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	3%	83.4°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	82.0°F	2.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261024-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Tampa runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗