KTPA / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

41%

20%

20%

14%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 21.0¢Risks 21.00u

EPSNO 79.0¢Risks 79.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +79.00u · EPS −79.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	14.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	11.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	17.3%	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	9.3%	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	19.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	0.9%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	0.2%	21.3%	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	14.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	10.5%	12.2%	0.7%	—	7.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	8.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	17.0%	14.4%	16.5%	0.2%	8.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	18.9%	—	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	41%	87.9°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	20%	84.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	20%	84.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	14%	84.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	82.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	82.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	83.7°F	2.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261026-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 19 · 17:29 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Tampa · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗