KTPA / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

41%

20%

20%

14%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 21.0¢Risks 21.00u

EPSNO 79.0¢Risks 79.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +79.00u · EPS −79.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T17:29:28+00:00	10.8%	0.9%	17.3%	9.1%	10.5%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	10.8%	0.9%	17.3%	9.1%	10.5%
2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00	10.8%	0.9%	17.3%	9.1%	10.5%
2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00	11.5%	0.9%	17.3%	19.2%	40.2%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	11.5%	0.9%	17.3%	19.2%	40.2%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	11.5%	0.9%	17.3%	19.2%	40.2%
2026-10-19T22:01:00+00:00	11.5%	0.9%	17.3%	19.2%	40.2%
2026-10-19T22:46:11+00:00	11.5%	0.9%	17.3%	19.2%	40.2%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	11.5%	0.9%	18.4%	19.2%	40.2%
2026-10-20T00:16:46+00:00	11.5%	0.9%	18.4%	19.2%	40.2%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	11.5%	0.9%	18.4%	19.2%	40.2%
2026-10-20T01:47:44+00:00	11.5%	0.9%	18.4%	19.2%	40.2%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	11.5%	0.9%	18.4%	19.2%	40.2%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	11.5%	0.9%	18.4%	19.2%	40.2%
2026-10-20T04:04:20+00:00	11.5%	0.9%	18.4%	19.2%	40.2%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	11.5%	0.9%	18.4%	19.2%	40.2%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00	11.5%	0.9%	16.8%	19.2%	40.2%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	11.5%	0.9%	16.8%	19.2%	40.2%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	11.5%	0.9%	16.8%	19.2%	40.2%
2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00	19.7%	0.9%	16.8%	19.2%	41.1%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	19.7%	0.9%	16.8%	19.2%	41.1%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	19.7%	0.9%	16.8%	19.2%	41.1%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	19.7%	0.9%	16.8%	19.2%	41.1%
2026-10-20T10:53:21+00:00	19.7%	0.9%	13.7%	20.2%	41.1%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00	19.7%	0.9%	13.7%	20.2%	41.1%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	19.7%	0.9%	13.7%	20.2%	41.1%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00	19.7%	0.9%	13.7%	20.2%	41.1%
2026-10-20T13:55:11+00:00	19.7%	0.9%	13.7%	20.2%	41.1%
2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00	19.7%	0.9%	13.7%	20.2%	41.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	41%	87.9°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	20%	84.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	20%	84.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	14%	84.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	82.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	82.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	83.7°F	2.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261026-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 19 · 17:29 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Tampa · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗