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KTUS / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≤ 74°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 06:58 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
89%
HRES
6%
AIFS
5%
WN2
5%
EPS
3%
Consensus
4%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 45.8¢Risks 45.75u
VS
EPSNO 54.2¢Risks 54.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +54.25u · EPS −54.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 98.3% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.1% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.3% · 2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.3% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.1% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.4% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.9% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.4% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.1% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.6% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 60.9% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.1% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 83.0% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.6% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.8% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 86.2% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 72.9% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.3% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.3% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.2% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.4% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.7% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.8% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.8% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.9% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.7% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.4% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.0% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.7% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.9% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.5% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.7% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.5% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.0% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 62.1% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 63.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 47.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 67.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.8% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 55.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 85.2% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 53.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.1% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 44.9% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 44.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 28.1% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 34.4% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 54.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 16.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 82.7% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 85.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 96.6% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 96.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 58.5% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 64.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 40.1% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 76.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 34.5% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 40.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 67.5% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 71.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 88.6% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 74.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 87.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 84.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 27.6% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 12.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.9% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.5% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.6% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 59.3% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.4% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.6% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 44.9% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.1% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.2% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.1% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.1% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.5% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 30.7% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.0% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.7% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.4% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.6% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.6% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 28.3% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.6% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 73.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 87.0% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 84.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 40.6% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 42.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 29.1% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 88.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 47.9% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 88.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 55.6% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 65.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 42.8% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 42.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 48.7% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 39.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 29.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 16.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.9% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 73.7% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.8% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.5% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 17.4% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 81.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 71.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 78.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 27.6% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 16.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 99.6% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 69.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 57.2% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 77.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 20.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 12.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 99.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 42.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 51.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 54.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 8.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.2% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.0% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.4% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.7% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.9% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.7% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.6% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.2% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.6% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.2% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.8% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.4% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.8% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.6% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.1% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.3% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.0% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.4% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 43.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 63.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 48.1% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 57.7% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 99.4% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 36.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.1% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 31.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 34.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 99.8% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.8% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.8% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0010-02 12:0010-10 06:0010-17 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:0098.3%—————
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:0013.1%—9.6%———
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:001.9%————2.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:0010.3%—————
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:0019.3%————4.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:004.7%—————
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:0031.1%————2.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:003.3%—————
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:008.3%————3.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:0013.4%—————
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:0021.6%————5.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:004.7%—————
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:007.9%————3.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:0020.4%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:009.1%————9.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:005.6%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:004.3%————6.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:002.5%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:0060.9%————7.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:0013.1%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:0083.0%————6.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:0031.6%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0026.8%—59.3%——8.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0086.2%—13.4%———
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0072.9%————7.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:0012.3%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:0019.3%—11.6%——2.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:0015.2%—44.9%———
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0010.4%—10.1%——2.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:005.7%—17.2%———
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0012.8%—3.1%——3.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0015.8%—7.1%———
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0018.9%28.1%14.5%73.7%—9.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0010.7%—30.7%———
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0018.4%—21.0%3.8%—10.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0016.0%—22.7%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0038.7%34.4%17.4%3.5%—20.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0015.9%—20.6%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0023.0%54.0%13.6%17.4%—27.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0013.5%—28.3%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:008.7%16.8%14.3%5.6%—17.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:009.5%82.7%22.6%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0013.1%85.4%73.1%81.0%—43.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0019.0%96.6%87.0%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0019.6%96.2%84.5%71.0%—63.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0062.1%58.5%40.6%——48.1%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0063.4%64.3%42.3%78.2%—57.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0047.0%40.1%29.1%——99.4%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0067.0%76.5%88.2%27.6%—36.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0046.8%34.5%47.9%——27.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0055.5%40.3%88.1%16.9%99.9%31.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0085.2%67.5%55.6%99.6%——
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0053.5%71.0%65.9%69.0%—34.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0038.1%88.6%42.8%57.2%—99.8%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0045.0%74.4%42.6%77.3%42.6%19.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0044.9%87.2%48.7%20.0%—12.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0044.6%84.3%39.4%0.4%51.3%7.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0022.1%27.6%18.2%0.4%—3.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0023.4%12.2%29.3%2.1%54.3%5.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0020.2%9.9%16.2%12.8%—0.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0034.6%3.4%12.5%0.5%8.9%1.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0021.6%4.5%9.9%0.1%—2.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON89%70.2°F3.5°F2026-10-16 12:000.7885
National Blend9%79.0°F3.4°F2026-10-17 00:000.0081
IFS HRES6%80.3°F3.7°F2026-10-16 12:000.0035
AIFS Single5%80.9°F4.0°F2026-10-16 18:000.0028
WeatherNext 25%79.3°F2.9°F2026-10-16 18:000.0025
IFS Ensemble3%80.7°F3.2°F2026-10-16 00:000.0007
NWS forecast<1%80.0°F2.1°F2026-10-17 03:000.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 74°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261017-TMAX-LE74
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Tucson stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 74°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗