KTUS / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≤ 74°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 45.8¢Risks 45.75u

EPSNO 54.2¢Risks 54.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +54.25u · EPS −54.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:04:33+00:00	2.3%	14.6%	16.3%	82.1%	74.8%
2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00	2.3%	14.6%	16.3%	82.1%	74.8%
2026-10-13T09:34:48+00:00	2.3%	14.6%	16.3%	82.1%	74.8%
2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00	2.3%	14.6%	16.3%	82.1%	74.8%
2026-10-13T11:05:30+00:00	2.3%	17.0%	18.8%	82.1%	74.8%
2026-10-13T11:50:45+00:00	2.3%	17.0%	18.8%	82.1%	74.8%
2026-10-13T12:35:52+00:00	2.3%	17.0%	18.8%	82.1%	74.8%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	2.3%	17.0%	18.8%	82.1%	74.8%
2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00	4.1%	17.0%	18.8%	82.1%	74.7%
2026-10-13T14:56:07+00:00	4.1%	18.6%	18.8%	82.1%	74.7%
2026-10-13T15:42:00+00:00	4.1%	18.6%	18.8%	82.1%	74.7%
2026-10-13T16:27:06+00:00	4.1%	18.6%	18.8%	82.1%	74.7%
2026-10-13T17:12:15+00:00	4.1%	18.6%	36.3%	82.1%	74.7%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	4.1%	18.6%	36.3%	82.1%	74.7%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	4.1%	18.6%	36.3%	82.1%	74.7%
2026-10-13T19:27:31+00:00	4.5%	18.6%	36.3%	82.1%	89.7%
2026-10-13T20:12:40+00:00	4.5%	18.6%	36.3%	82.1%	89.7%
2026-10-13T20:57:46+00:00	4.5%	18.6%	36.3%	82.1%	89.7%
2026-10-13T21:43:21+00:00	4.5%	18.6%	36.3%	82.1%	89.7%
2026-10-13T22:28:28+00:00	4.5%	18.6%	36.3%	54.0%	89.7%
2026-10-13T23:13:40+00:00	4.5%	18.6%	21.0%	54.0%	89.7%
2026-10-13T23:58:49+00:00	4.5%	18.6%	21.0%	54.0%	89.7%
2026-10-14T00:43:56+00:00	4.5%	18.6%	21.0%	54.0%	89.7%
2026-10-14T01:29:15+00:00	24.3%	18.6%	21.0%	54.0%	89.7%
2026-10-14T02:14:22+00:00	24.3%	18.6%	21.0%	54.0%	89.7%
2026-10-14T03:00:21+00:00	24.3%	18.6%	21.0%	54.0%	89.7%
2026-10-14T03:45:42+00:00	24.3%	18.6%	21.0%	54.0%	89.7%
2026-10-14T04:30:49+00:00	24.3%	18.6%	21.0%	54.0%	89.7%
2026-10-14T05:15:56+00:00	24.3%	18.6%	21.0%	54.0%	89.7%
2026-10-14T06:01:03+00:00	24.3%	18.6%	21.0%	54.0%	89.7%
2026-10-14T06:46:21+00:00	24.3%	18.6%	21.0%	54.0%	89.7%
2026-10-14T07:31:31+00:00	23.5%	18.6%	21.0%	54.0%	58.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00	23.5%	18.6%	21.0%	54.0%	58.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:50+00:00	23.5%	18.6%	21.0%	54.0%	58.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	23.5%	18.6%	21.0%	54.0%	58.0%
2026-10-14T10:35:13+00:00	23.5%	18.6%	21.0%	38.6%	58.0%
2026-10-14T11:21:07+00:00	23.5%	12.9%	35.0%	38.6%	58.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:17+00:00	23.5%	12.9%	35.0%	38.6%	58.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	23.5%	12.9%	35.0%	38.6%	58.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00	13.7%	12.9%	35.0%	38.6%	58.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:54+00:00	13.7%	13.0%	35.0%	38.6%	58.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:51+00:00	13.7%	13.4%	35.0%	38.6%	58.0%
2026-10-14T15:58:00+00:00	13.7%	13.4%	35.0%	38.6%	58.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	13.7%	13.4%	35.0%	38.6%	58.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:00	13.7%	13.4%	22.0%	38.6%	58.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:24+00:00	13.7%	13.4%	22.0%	38.6%	58.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	13.7%	13.4%	22.0%	38.6%	58.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:43+00:00	25.7%	13.4%	22.0%	6.4%	70.2%
2026-10-14T20:28:53+00:00	25.7%	13.4%	22.0%	6.4%	70.2%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	25.7%	13.4%	22.0%	6.4%	70.2%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	25.7%	13.4%	22.0%	6.4%	70.2%
2026-10-14T22:44:13+00:00	25.7%	13.4%	22.0%	6.4%	70.2%
2026-10-14T23:29:36+00:00	25.7%	13.4%	44.1%	6.4%	70.2%
2026-10-15T00:15:32+00:00	25.7%	13.4%	44.1%	6.4%	70.2%
2026-10-15T01:01:14+00:00	25.7%	13.4%	44.1%	6.4%	70.2%
2026-10-15T01:46:24+00:00	13.7%	13.4%	44.1%	6.4%	70.2%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	13.7%	13.4%	44.1%	6.4%	70.2%
2026-10-15T03:16:40+00:00	13.7%	13.4%	44.1%	6.4%	70.2%
2026-10-15T04:02:44+00:00	13.7%	13.4%	44.1%	6.4%	70.2%
2026-10-15T04:48:14+00:00	13.7%	13.4%	44.1%	6.4%	70.2%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	13.7%	13.4%	38.3%	6.4%	70.2%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	13.7%	13.4%	38.3%	6.4%	70.2%
2026-10-15T07:03:44+00:00	13.7%	13.4%	38.3%	6.4%	70.2%
2026-10-15T07:50:46+00:00	17.0%	13.4%	38.3%	24.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T08:35:54+00:00	17.0%	13.4%	38.3%	24.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T09:21:49+00:00	17.0%	13.4%	38.3%	24.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T10:07:45+00:00	17.0%	13.4%	38.3%	24.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T10:53:55+00:00	17.0%	13.4%	55.1%	24.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T11:39:46+00:00	17.0%	13.4%	55.1%	24.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T12:24:59+00:00	17.0%	1.9%	55.1%	24.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T13:10:45+00:00	17.0%	1.9%	55.1%	24.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T13:55:59+00:00	42.2%	2.1%	55.1%	24.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T14:48:29+00:00	42.2%	2.1%	55.1%	24.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T15:34:48+00:00	42.2%	2.6%	55.1%	24.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T16:20:18+00:00	42.2%	2.6%	55.1%	24.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T17:05:27+00:00	42.2%	2.6%	57.7%	24.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	42.2%	2.6%	57.7%	24.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	42.2%	2.6%	57.7%	24.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	42.2%	2.6%	57.7%	24.0%	43.3%
2026-10-15T20:06:24+00:00	16.3%	2.6%	57.7%	25.5%	73.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:39+00:00	16.3%	2.6%	57.7%	25.5%	73.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	16.3%	2.6%	57.7%	25.5%	73.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:56+00:00	16.3%	2.6%	57.7%	25.5%	73.3%
2026-10-15T23:07:07+00:00	16.3%	2.6%	38.6%	25.5%	73.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00	16.3%	2.6%	38.6%	25.5%	73.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:29+00:00	16.3%	2.6%	38.6%	25.5%	73.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:55+00:00	9.6%	2.6%	38.6%	25.5%	73.3%
2026-10-16T02:08:23+00:00	9.6%	2.6%	38.6%	25.5%	73.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:37+00:00	9.6%	2.6%	38.6%	25.5%	73.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00	9.6%	2.6%	38.6%	25.5%	73.3%
2026-10-16T04:25:20+00:00	9.6%	2.6%	38.6%	25.5%	73.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:35+00:00	9.6%	2.6%	20.1%	25.5%	73.3%
2026-10-16T05:56:00+00:00	9.6%	2.6%	20.1%	25.5%	73.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:10+00:00	9.6%	2.6%	20.1%	25.5%	73.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:20+00:00	11.8%	2.6%	20.1%	25.5%	83.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	11.8%	2.6%	20.1%	25.5%	83.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:39+00:00	11.8%	2.6%	20.1%	25.5%	83.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:45+00:00	11.8%	2.6%	20.1%	25.5%	83.3%
2026-10-16T10:27:00+00:00	11.8%	2.6%	20.1%	25.5%	83.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:28+00:00	11.8%	2.7%	15.9%	25.5%	83.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:44+00:00	11.8%	2.7%	15.9%	25.5%	83.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	11.8%	2.7%	15.9%	25.5%	83.3%
2026-10-16T13:29:09+00:00	11.8%	2.7%	15.9%	2.8%	83.3%
2026-10-16T14:20:02+00:00	11.7%	2.8%	15.9%	2.8%	83.2%
2026-10-16T15:05:52+00:00	11.7%	2.8%	15.9%	2.8%	83.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	11.7%	2.7%	15.9%	2.8%	83.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	11.7%	2.7%	15.9%	2.8%	83.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:34+00:00	11.7%	2.7%	21.5%	2.8%	83.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:40+00:00	11.7%	2.7%	21.5%	2.8%	83.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:47+00:00	11.7%	2.7%	21.5%	2.8%	83.2%
2026-10-16T19:37:20+00:00	11.7%	2.7%	21.5%	2.8%	88.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	11.7%	2.7%	21.5%	2.8%	88.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	11.7%	2.7%	21.5%	2.8%	88.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:57+00:00	11.7%	2.7%	21.5%	2.8%	88.8%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	11.7%	2.7%	21.5%	5.9%	88.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	11.7%	2.7%	32.8%	5.9%	88.8%
2026-10-17T00:09:46+00:00	11.7%	2.7%	32.8%	5.9%	88.8%
2026-10-17T00:55:02+00:00	11.7%	2.7%	32.8%	5.9%	88.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:15+00:00	5.3%	2.7%	32.8%	5.9%	88.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:25+00:00	5.3%	2.7%	32.8%	5.9%	88.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:33+00:00	5.3%	2.7%	32.8%	5.9%	88.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	5.3%	2.7%	32.8%	5.9%	88.8%
2026-10-17T04:42:44+00:00	5.3%	2.7%	32.8%	5.9%	88.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:32+00:00	5.3%	2.7%	5.0%	5.9%	88.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:41+00:00	5.3%	2.7%	5.0%	5.9%	88.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	5.3%	2.7%	5.0%	5.9%	88.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	89%	70.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.7885
National Blend	9%	79.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0081
IFS HRES	6%	80.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0035
AIFS Single	5%	80.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0028
WeatherNext 2	5%	79.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0025
IFS Ensemble	3%	80.7°F	3.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0007
NWS forecast	<1%	80.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 74°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261017-TMAX-LE74
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Tucson stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 74°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗