KTUS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 84°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

56%

51%

32%

18%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 42.1¢Risks 42.15u

WN2NO 57.9¢Risks 57.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +57.85u · WN2 −57.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	—	—	—	64.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	—	—	—	56.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	—	—	—	62.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	—	—	—	73.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	64.2%	—	2.1%	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	56.9%	—	—	68.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	46.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	44.8%	—	—	57.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	30.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	43.9%	—	44.6%	—	—	54.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	39.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	28.6%	33.0%	0.0%	—	40.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	27.9%	52.9%	69.6%	—	44.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	39.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	56.8%	53.0%	46.2%	69.7%	—	50.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	37.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	57.1%	26.8%	5.5%	35.9%	—	39.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	10.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	27.9%	21.9%	30.8%	—	38.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	46.6%	2.7%	27.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	29.1%	29.1%	20.2%	—	23.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	24.2%	39.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	11.5%	33.0%	54.6%	—	33.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	30.9%	13.7%	34.3%	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	1.9%	28.7%	40.4%	—	36.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	0.7%	19.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	17.0%	2.5%	0.3%	69.7%	—	47.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	10.6%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	1.6%	4.5%	79.4%	—	30.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	1.0%	21.4%	0.0%	—	34.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	0.6%	0.0%	88.4%	—	26.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.2%	39.3%	7.4%	90.3%	—	25.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	53.7%	23.6%	84.9%	17.4%	43.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.9%	48.7%	32.5%	79.1%	—	39.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	46.0%	15.7%	84.3%	47.3%	31.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	11.1%	61.0%	77.9%	—	37.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	13.8%	37.2%	55.8%	64.2%	31.8%	23.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	36.6%	48.5%	64.8%	—	36.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	36.1%	66.8%	48.4%	27.6%	53.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	17.0%	46.7%	67.6%	51.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	67%	85.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1116
NWS forecast	59%	84.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
AIFS Single	56%	84.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.1927
IFS Ensemble	51%	83.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.2411
National Blend	46%	83.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.2959
ICON	32%	81.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.4556
WeatherNext 2	18%	80.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.6773

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261018-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 84°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗