KTUS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 84°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

56%

51%

32%

18%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 42.1¢Risks 42.15u

WN2NO 57.9¢Risks 57.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +57.85u · WN2 −57.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:16:39+00:00	80.7%	23.1%	68.5%	79.0%	71.0%
2026-10-13T05:01:48+00:00	80.7%	23.1%	57.8%	79.0%	71.0%
2026-10-13T05:46:55+00:00	80.7%	23.1%	57.8%	79.0%	71.0%
2026-10-13T06:32:14+00:00	80.7%	23.1%	57.8%	79.0%	71.0%
2026-10-13T07:17:21+00:00	80.7%	23.1%	57.8%	79.0%	71.0%
2026-10-13T08:04:33+00:00	83.6%	23.1%	57.8%	51.4%	46.6%
2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00	83.6%	23.1%	57.8%	51.4%	46.6%
2026-10-13T09:34:48+00:00	83.6%	23.1%	57.8%	51.4%	46.6%
2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00	83.6%	23.1%	57.8%	51.4%	46.6%
2026-10-13T11:05:30+00:00	83.6%	49.1%	55.8%	51.4%	46.6%
2026-10-13T11:50:45+00:00	83.6%	49.1%	55.8%	51.4%	46.6%
2026-10-13T12:35:52+00:00	83.6%	49.1%	55.8%	51.4%	46.6%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	83.6%	49.1%	55.8%	51.4%	46.6%
2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00	81.3%	49.1%	55.8%	51.4%	46.6%
2026-10-13T14:56:07+00:00	81.3%	46.5%	55.8%	51.4%	46.6%
2026-10-18T04:15:07+00:00	56.1%	50.9%	3.7%	66.6%	32.5%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	56.1%	50.9%	17.7%	66.6%	32.5%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	56.1%	50.9%	17.7%	66.6%	32.5%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	56.1%	50.9%	17.7%	66.6%	32.5%
2026-10-18T07:15:41+00:00	56.1%	50.9%	17.7%	66.6%	32.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	67%	85.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1116
NWS forecast	59%	84.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
AIFS Single	56%	84.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.1927
IFS Ensemble	51%	83.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.2411
National Blend	46%	83.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.2959
ICON	32%	81.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.4556
WeatherNext 2	18%	80.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.6773

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261018-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 84°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗