KTUS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

14%

13%

12%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 7.6¢Risks 3.82u

WN2NO 92.3¢Risks 46.17u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +46.17u · WN2 −46.17u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	—	—	—	44.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	48.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	0.3%	—	—	35.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	34.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	4.2%	—	—	24.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	23.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	0.0%	20.3%	—	—	28.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	16.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	34.3%	26.3%	0.0%	—	30.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	20.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	19.9%	21.5%	10.9%	21.0%	—	25.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	11.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	20.5%	28.9%	7.3%	—	22.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	31.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	14.5%	29.5%	2.1%	—	15.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	26.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	9.0%	5.3%	2.3%	—	20.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	0.5%	12.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	7.0%	7.0%	30.7%	—	17.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	3.6%	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.0%	5.8%	33.0%	—	16.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	3.0%	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	8.2%	1.1%	26.3%	—	8.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	10.0%	1.1%	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	1.1%	0.3%	26.8%	—	12.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	9.2%	2.0%	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	5.0%	3.1%	19.0%	0.0%	15.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	8.3%	11.2%	0.0%	—	16.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.5%	10.5%	17.5%	0.2%	7.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	2.7%	12.6%	3.5%	—	9.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.4%	10.6%	4.6%	—	7.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.5%	7.2%	1.6%	—	4.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.0%	1.1%	0.1%	0.0%	1.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.0%	0.4%	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.2%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	3.7%	0.1%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	14%	85.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0182
IFS Ensemble	13%	85.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0172
AIFS Single	12%	84.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.0135
National Blend	9%	85.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	0.0081
NWS forecast	6%	86.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	0.0031
ICON	2%	82.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0004
WeatherNext 2	2%	83.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.0003

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261019-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 12 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Tucson · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗