KTUS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

14%

13%

12%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 7.6¢Risks 3.82u

WN2NO 92.3¢Risks 46.17u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +46.17u · WN2 −46.17u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:49:19+00:00	52.9%	19.8%	45.5%	40.0%	2.3%
2026-10-12T08:34:35+00:00	52.9%	19.8%	45.5%	40.0%	2.3%
2026-10-12T09:19:41+00:00	52.9%	19.8%	45.5%	40.0%	2.3%
2026-10-12T10:05:02+00:00	52.9%	19.8%	45.5%	40.0%	2.3%
2026-10-12T10:50:15+00:00	52.9%	19.8%	45.5%	40.0%	2.3%
2026-10-12T11:35:45+00:00	52.9%	19.8%	42.8%	40.0%	2.3%
2026-10-12T12:20:52+00:00	52.9%	12.1%	42.8%	40.0%	2.3%
2026-10-12T13:06:00+00:00	52.9%	12.1%	42.8%	40.0%	2.3%
2026-10-12T13:51:13+00:00	46.4%	12.1%	42.8%	40.0%	2.3%
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00	46.5%	12.1%	42.8%	40.0%	2.4%
2026-10-12T15:27:53+00:00	46.5%	12.1%	42.8%	40.0%	2.4%
2026-10-12T16:12:59+00:00	46.5%	10.8%	42.8%	40.0%	2.4%
2026-10-12T16:58:09+00:00	46.5%	10.8%	38.1%	40.0%	2.4%
2026-10-12T17:43:17+00:00	46.5%	10.8%	38.1%	40.0%	2.4%
2026-10-12T18:28:23+00:00	46.5%	10.8%	38.1%	40.0%	2.4%
2026-10-12T19:13:29+00:00	46.5%	10.8%	38.1%	40.0%	2.4%
2026-10-12T19:58:39+00:00	45.0%	10.8%	38.1%	61.2%	58.8%
2026-10-12T20:43:46+00:00	45.0%	10.8%	38.1%	61.2%	58.8%
2026-10-12T21:28:53+00:00	45.0%	10.8%	38.1%	61.2%	58.8%
2026-10-12T22:14:00+00:00	45.0%	10.8%	38.1%	61.2%	58.8%
2026-10-12T22:59:15+00:00	45.0%	10.8%	42.0%	61.2%	58.8%
2026-10-12T23:44:21+00:00	45.0%	10.8%	42.0%	61.2%	58.8%
2026-10-13T00:29:27+00:00	45.0%	10.8%	42.0%	61.2%	58.8%
2026-10-13T01:14:43+00:00	45.0%	10.8%	42.0%	61.2%	58.8%
2026-10-13T01:59:53+00:00	47.2%	10.8%	42.0%	61.2%	58.8%
2026-10-13T02:44:59+00:00	47.2%	10.8%	42.0%	61.2%	58.8%
2026-10-13T03:30:05+00:00	47.2%	10.8%	42.0%	61.2%	58.8%
2026-10-13T04:16:41+00:00	47.2%	10.8%	42.0%	61.2%	58.8%
2026-10-13T05:01:48+00:00	47.2%	10.8%	34.4%	61.2%	58.8%
2026-10-13T05:46:55+00:00	47.2%	10.8%	34.4%	61.2%	58.8%
2026-10-13T06:32:14+00:00	47.2%	10.8%	34.4%	61.2%	58.8%
2026-10-13T07:17:21+00:00	47.2%	10.8%	34.4%	61.2%	58.8%
2026-10-13T08:04:33+00:00	45.5%	10.8%	34.4%	24.2%	45.5%
2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00	45.5%	10.8%	34.4%	24.2%	45.5%
2026-10-13T09:34:48+00:00	45.5%	10.8%	34.4%	24.2%	45.5%
2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00	45.5%	10.8%	34.4%	24.2%	45.5%
2026-10-13T11:05:30+00:00	45.5%	9.3%	29.2%	24.2%	45.5%
2026-10-13T11:50:45+00:00	45.5%	9.3%	29.2%	24.2%	45.5%
2026-10-13T12:35:52+00:00	45.5%	9.3%	29.2%	24.2%	45.5%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	45.5%	9.3%	29.2%	24.2%	45.5%
2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00	35.3%	9.3%	29.3%	24.2%	46.0%
2026-10-13T14:56:07+00:00	35.3%	8.7%	29.3%	24.2%	46.0%
2026-10-13T15:42:00+00:00	35.3%	8.6%	29.3%	24.2%	46.0%
2026-10-13T16:27:06+00:00	35.3%	8.6%	29.3%	24.2%	46.0%
2026-10-13T17:12:15+00:00	35.3%	8.6%	25.6%	24.2%	46.0%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	35.3%	8.6%	25.6%	24.2%	46.0%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	35.3%	8.6%	25.6%	24.2%	46.0%
2026-10-13T19:27:31+00:00	38.9%	8.6%	25.6%	24.2%	46.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:40+00:00	38.9%	8.6%	25.6%	24.2%	46.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:46+00:00	38.9%	8.6%	25.6%	24.2%	46.0%
2026-10-13T21:43:21+00:00	38.9%	8.6%	25.6%	24.2%	46.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:28+00:00	38.9%	8.6%	25.6%	44.5%	46.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:40+00:00	38.9%	8.6%	27.8%	44.5%	46.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:49+00:00	38.9%	8.6%	27.8%	44.5%	46.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:56+00:00	38.9%	8.6%	27.8%	44.5%	46.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:15+00:00	14.5%	8.6%	27.8%	44.5%	46.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:22+00:00	14.5%	8.6%	27.8%	44.5%	46.0%
2026-10-14T03:00:21+00:00	14.5%	8.6%	27.8%	44.5%	46.0%
2026-10-14T03:45:42+00:00	14.5%	8.6%	27.8%	44.5%	46.0%
2026-10-14T04:30:49+00:00	14.5%	8.6%	27.8%	44.5%	46.0%
2026-10-14T05:15:56+00:00	14.5%	8.6%	27.8%	44.5%	46.0%
2026-10-14T06:01:03+00:00	14.5%	8.6%	27.8%	44.5%	46.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:21+00:00	14.5%	8.6%	27.8%	44.5%	46.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:31+00:00	7.3%	8.6%	27.8%	44.5%	32.3%
2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00	7.3%	8.6%	27.8%	44.5%	32.3%
2026-10-14T09:01:50+00:00	7.3%	8.6%	27.8%	44.5%	32.3%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	7.3%	8.6%	27.8%	44.5%	32.3%
2026-10-14T10:35:14+00:00	7.3%	8.6%	27.8%	22.3%	32.3%
2026-10-14T11:21:08+00:00	7.3%	17.1%	1.6%	22.3%	32.3%
2026-10-14T12:06:17+00:00	7.3%	17.1%	1.6%	22.3%	32.3%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	7.3%	17.1%	1.6%	22.3%	32.3%
2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00	7.3%	17.1%	1.6%	22.3%	32.3%
2026-10-14T14:26:54+00:00	7.4%	17.1%	1.6%	22.3%	32.5%
2026-10-14T15:12:51+00:00	7.4%	16.5%	1.6%	22.3%	32.5%
2026-10-14T15:58:00+00:00	7.4%	16.5%	1.6%	22.3%	32.5%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	7.4%	16.5%	1.6%	22.3%	32.5%
2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:00	7.4%	16.5%	1.6%	22.3%	32.5%
2026-10-14T18:13:24+00:00	7.4%	16.5%	1.6%	22.3%	32.5%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	7.4%	16.5%	1.6%	22.3%	32.5%
2026-10-14T19:43:43+00:00	6.3%	16.5%	1.6%	48.6%	26.1%
2026-10-14T20:28:53+00:00	6.3%	16.5%	1.6%	48.6%	26.1%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	6.3%	16.5%	1.6%	48.6%	26.1%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	6.3%	16.5%	1.6%	48.6%	26.1%
2026-10-14T22:44:13+00:00	6.3%	16.5%	1.6%	48.6%	26.1%
2026-10-14T23:29:36+00:00	6.3%	16.5%	1.0%	48.6%	26.1%
2026-10-15T00:15:32+00:00	6.3%	16.5%	1.0%	48.6%	26.1%
2026-10-15T01:01:14+00:00	6.3%	16.5%	1.0%	48.6%	26.1%
2026-10-15T01:46:24+00:00	13.9%	16.5%	1.0%	48.6%	26.1%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	13.9%	16.5%	1.0%	48.6%	26.1%
2026-10-15T03:16:40+00:00	13.9%	16.5%	1.0%	48.6%	26.1%
2026-10-15T04:02:45+00:00	13.9%	16.5%	1.0%	48.6%	26.1%
2026-10-15T04:48:14+00:00	13.9%	16.5%	1.0%	48.6%	26.1%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	13.9%	16.5%	2.2%	48.6%	26.1%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	13.9%	16.5%	2.2%	48.6%	26.1%
2026-10-15T07:03:44+00:00	13.9%	16.5%	2.2%	48.6%	26.1%
2026-10-15T07:50:46+00:00	5.2%	16.5%	2.2%	18.4%	15.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:54+00:00	5.2%	16.5%	2.2%	18.4%	15.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:49+00:00	5.2%	16.5%	2.2%	18.4%	15.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:45+00:00	5.2%	16.5%	2.2%	18.4%	15.0%
2026-10-15T10:53:55+00:00	5.2%	16.5%	0.5%	18.4%	15.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:46+00:00	5.2%	16.5%	0.5%	18.4%	15.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:59+00:00	5.2%	26.0%	0.5%	18.4%	15.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:45+00:00	5.2%	26.0%	0.5%	18.4%	15.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:59+00:00	12.4%	26.0%	0.5%	18.4%	15.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:29+00:00	12.4%	26.0%	0.5%	18.4%	15.2%
2026-10-15T15:34:48+00:00	12.4%	22.9%	0.5%	18.4%	15.2%
2026-10-15T16:20:18+00:00	12.4%	22.9%	0.5%	18.4%	15.2%
2026-10-15T17:05:27+00:00	12.4%	22.9%	0.5%	18.4%	15.2%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	12.4%	22.9%	0.5%	18.4%	15.2%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	12.4%	22.9%	0.5%	18.4%	15.2%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	12.4%	22.9%	0.5%	18.4%	15.2%
2026-10-15T20:06:24+00:00	2.6%	22.9%	0.5%	42.9%	4.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:39+00:00	2.6%	22.9%	0.5%	42.9%	4.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	2.6%	22.9%	0.5%	42.9%	4.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:56+00:00	2.6%	22.9%	0.5%	42.9%	4.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:07+00:00	2.6%	22.9%	1.4%	42.9%	4.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00	2.6%	22.9%	1.4%	42.9%	4.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:29+00:00	2.6%	22.9%	1.4%	42.9%	4.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:55+00:00	2.0%	22.9%	1.4%	42.9%	4.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:23+00:00	2.0%	22.9%	1.4%	42.9%	4.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:37+00:00	2.0%	22.9%	1.4%	42.9%	4.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00	2.0%	22.9%	1.4%	42.9%	4.4%
2026-10-16T04:25:20+00:00	2.0%	22.9%	1.4%	42.9%	4.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:35+00:00	2.0%	22.9%	1.2%	42.9%	4.4%
2026-10-16T05:56:00+00:00	2.0%	22.9%	1.2%	42.9%	4.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:10+00:00	2.0%	22.9%	1.2%	42.9%	4.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:20+00:00	1.2%	22.9%	1.2%	42.9%	10.4%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	1.2%	22.9%	1.2%	42.9%	10.4%
2026-10-16T08:56:39+00:00	1.2%	22.9%	1.2%	42.9%	10.4%
2026-10-16T09:41:45+00:00	1.2%	22.9%	1.2%	42.9%	10.4%
2026-10-16T10:27:00+00:00	1.2%	22.9%	1.2%	42.9%	10.4%
2026-10-16T11:12:28+00:00	1.2%	15.0%	0.2%	42.9%	10.4%
2026-10-16T11:57:44+00:00	1.2%	15.0%	0.2%	42.9%	10.4%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	1.2%	15.0%	0.2%	42.9%	10.4%
2026-10-16T13:29:09+00:00	4.4%	15.0%	0.2%	21.0%	10.4%
2026-10-16T14:20:02+00:00	4.4%	15.1%	0.2%	21.0%	10.4%
2026-10-16T15:05:52+00:00	4.4%	15.1%	0.2%	21.0%	10.4%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	4.4%	15.0%	0.2%	21.0%	10.4%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	4.4%	15.0%	0.2%	21.0%	10.4%
2026-10-16T17:21:34+00:00	4.4%	15.0%	0.3%	21.0%	10.4%
2026-10-16T18:06:40+00:00	4.4%	15.0%	0.3%	21.0%	10.4%
2026-10-16T18:51:47+00:00	4.4%	15.0%	0.3%	21.0%	10.4%
2026-10-16T19:37:20+00:00	12.6%	15.0%	0.3%	21.0%	1.9%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	12.6%	15.0%	0.3%	21.0%	1.9%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	12.6%	15.0%	0.3%	21.0%	1.9%
2026-10-16T21:52:57+00:00	12.6%	15.0%	0.3%	21.0%	1.9%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	12.6%	15.0%	0.3%	40.3%	1.9%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	12.6%	15.0%	1.4%	40.3%	1.9%
2026-10-17T00:09:46+00:00	12.6%	15.0%	1.4%	40.3%	1.9%
2026-10-17T00:55:02+00:00	12.6%	15.0%	1.4%	40.3%	1.9%
2026-10-17T01:40:15+00:00	19.4%	15.0%	1.4%	40.3%	1.9%
2026-10-17T02:25:25+00:00	19.4%	15.0%	1.4%	40.3%	1.9%
2026-10-17T03:10:33+00:00	19.4%	15.0%	1.4%	40.3%	1.9%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	19.4%	15.0%	1.4%	40.3%	1.9%
2026-10-17T04:42:44+00:00	19.4%	15.0%	1.4%	40.3%	1.9%
2026-10-17T05:28:32+00:00	19.4%	15.0%	3.5%	40.3%	1.9%
2026-10-17T06:13:41+00:00	19.4%	15.0%	3.5%	40.3%	1.9%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	19.4%	15.0%	3.5%	40.3%	1.9%
2026-10-17T07:45:31+00:00	27.0%	15.0%	3.5%	58.7%	3.8%
2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00	27.0%	15.0%	3.5%	58.7%	3.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00	27.0%	15.0%	3.5%	58.7%	3.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	27.0%	15.0%	3.5%	58.7%	3.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	27.0%	15.0%	3.5%	58.7%	3.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:20+00:00	27.0%	24.5%	1.8%	58.7%	3.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	27.0%	24.5%	1.8%	58.7%	3.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	27.0%	24.5%	1.8%	58.7%	3.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:00	6.4%	24.5%	1.8%	58.7%	3.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	6.3%	25.0%	1.8%	58.7%	3.8%
2026-10-17T15:25:25+00:00	6.3%	23.8%	1.8%	58.7%	3.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	6.3%	23.8%	1.8%	58.7%	3.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00	6.3%	23.8%	0.4%	58.7%	3.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:53+00:00	6.3%	23.8%	0.4%	58.7%	3.8%
2026-10-17T18:26:00+00:00	6.3%	23.8%	0.4%	58.7%	3.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:07+00:00	6.3%	23.8%	0.4%	58.7%	3.8%
2026-10-17T19:56:23+00:00	3.6%	23.8%	0.4%	38.5%	1.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:34+00:00	3.6%	23.8%	0.4%	38.5%	1.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:41+00:00	3.6%	23.8%	0.4%	38.5%	1.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	3.6%	23.8%	0.4%	38.5%	1.5%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	3.6%	23.8%	0.4%	38.5%	1.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:16+00:00	3.6%	23.8%	0.4%	38.5%	1.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	3.6%	23.8%	0.4%	38.5%	1.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00	3.6%	23.8%	0.4%	38.5%	1.5%
2026-10-18T01:58:17+00:00	8.4%	23.8%	0.4%	38.5%	1.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	8.4%	23.8%	0.4%	38.5%	1.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	8.4%	23.8%	0.4%	38.5%	1.5%
2026-10-18T04:15:07+00:00	8.4%	23.8%	0.4%	38.5%	1.5%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	8.4%	23.8%	1.4%	38.5%	1.5%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	8.4%	23.8%	1.4%	38.5%	1.5%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	8.4%	23.8%	1.4%	38.5%	1.5%
2026-10-18T07:15:41+00:00	8.4%	23.8%	1.4%	38.5%	1.5%
2026-10-18T08:02:04+00:00	7.0%	23.8%	1.4%	28.6%	0.2%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	7.0%	23.8%	1.4%	28.6%	0.2%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	7.0%	23.8%	1.4%	28.6%	0.2%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	7.0%	23.8%	1.4%	28.6%	0.2%
2026-10-18T11:03:07+00:00	7.0%	13.0%	0.7%	28.6%	0.2%
2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00	7.0%	13.0%	0.7%	28.6%	0.2%
2026-10-18T12:33:58+00:00	7.0%	13.0%	0.7%	28.6%	0.2%
2026-10-18T13:19:05+00:00	7.0%	13.0%	0.7%	28.6%	0.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:47+00:00	8.9%	13.1%	0.5%	13.5%	1.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	8.9%	13.1%	0.5%	13.5%	1.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:12+00:00	8.9%	13.1%	0.5%	13.5%	1.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:41+00:00	11.6%	13.1%	0.5%	13.5%	1.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:50+00:00	11.6%	13.1%	0.5%	13.5%	1.9%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	11.6%	13.1%	0.5%	13.5%	1.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00	11.6%	13.1%	0.5%	13.5%	1.9%
2026-10-19T04:31:45+00:00	11.6%	13.1%	0.5%	13.5%	1.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00	11.6%	13.1%	1.8%	13.5%	1.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00	11.6%	13.1%	1.8%	13.5%	1.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00	11.6%	13.1%	1.8%	13.5%	1.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	14%	85.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0182
IFS Ensemble	13%	85.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0172
AIFS Single	12%	84.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.0135
National Blend	9%	85.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	0.0081
NWS forecast	6%	86.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	0.0031
ICON	2%	82.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0004
WeatherNext 2	2%	83.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.0003

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261019-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 12 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Tucson · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗