KTUS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 93°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 06:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

29%

13%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 14.6¢Risks 14.65u

WN2NO 85.4¢Risks 85.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +85.35u · WN2 −85.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	24.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	—	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	10.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	1.3%	—	—	11.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	11.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	0.0%	9.0%	—	—	13.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	17.5%	12.2%	0.0%	—	14.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	9.0%	3.8%	8.7%	—	11.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	4.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	8.1%	12.9%	2.1%	—	9.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	14.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	4.9%	12.7%	0.4%	—	5.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	10.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.5%	1.2%	0.4%	—	7.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.1%	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.7%	1.7%	12.2%	—	5.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.7%	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	1.2%	12.9%	—	4.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.5%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.7%	0.1%	8.6%	—	1.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.1%	0.1%	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	8.2%	—	2.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.7%	0.4%	4.5%	0.0%	3.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.3%	1.9%	0.0%	—	3.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	1.7%	3.5%	0.0%	1.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	2.0%	0.3%	—	1.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.4%	0.4%	—	0.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.8%	0.1%	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	29%	89.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0841
ICON	13%	85.7°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0159
AIFS Single	5%	84.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.0021
IFS Ensemble	4%	85.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0019
NWS forecast	3%	84.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.0008
National Blend	<1%	83.0°F	3.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0000
WeatherNext 2	<1%	81.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 93°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261019-TMAX-GE93
Opened Oct 12 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Tucson runs hot-for-here: 93°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗