KTUS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 93°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 06:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

29%

13%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 14.6¢Risks 14.65u

WN2NO 85.4¢Risks 85.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +85.35u · WN2 −85.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:49:18+00:00	32.1%	5.5%	24.9%	23.4%	1.1%
2026-10-12T08:34:35+00:00	32.1%	5.5%	24.9%	23.4%	1.1%
2026-10-12T09:19:41+00:00	32.1%	5.5%	24.9%	23.4%	1.1%
2026-10-12T10:05:02+00:00	32.1%	5.5%	24.9%	23.4%	1.1%
2026-10-12T10:50:15+00:00	32.1%	5.5%	24.9%	23.4%	1.1%
2026-10-12T11:35:45+00:00	32.1%	5.5%	21.5%	23.4%	1.1%
2026-10-12T12:20:52+00:00	32.1%	2.9%	21.5%	23.4%	1.1%
2026-10-12T13:06:00+00:00	32.1%	2.9%	21.5%	23.4%	1.1%
2026-10-12T13:51:13+00:00	26.6%	2.9%	21.5%	23.4%	1.1%
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00	26.7%	2.9%	21.6%	23.4%	1.1%
2026-10-12T15:27:53+00:00	26.7%	2.9%	21.6%	23.4%	1.1%
2026-10-12T16:12:59+00:00	26.7%	2.5%	21.6%	23.4%	1.1%
2026-10-12T16:58:09+00:00	26.7%	2.5%	18.3%	23.4%	1.1%
2026-10-12T17:43:17+00:00	26.7%	2.5%	18.3%	23.4%	1.1%
2026-10-12T18:28:23+00:00	26.7%	2.5%	18.3%	23.4%	1.1%
2026-10-12T19:13:29+00:00	26.7%	2.5%	18.3%	23.4%	1.1%
2026-10-12T19:58:39+00:00	25.5%	2.5%	18.3%	42.5%	46.8%
2026-10-12T20:43:46+00:00	25.5%	2.5%	18.3%	42.5%	46.8%
2026-10-12T21:28:53+00:00	25.5%	2.5%	18.3%	42.5%	46.8%
2026-10-12T22:14:00+00:00	25.5%	2.5%	18.3%	42.5%	46.8%
2026-10-12T22:59:15+00:00	25.5%	2.5%	21.0%	42.5%	46.8%
2026-10-12T23:44:21+00:00	25.5%	2.5%	21.0%	42.5%	46.8%
2026-10-13T00:29:27+00:00	25.5%	2.5%	21.0%	42.5%	46.8%
2026-10-13T01:14:43+00:00	25.5%	2.5%	21.0%	42.5%	46.8%
2026-10-13T01:59:53+00:00	27.3%	2.5%	21.0%	42.5%	46.8%
2026-10-13T02:44:59+00:00	27.3%	2.5%	21.0%	42.5%	46.8%
2026-10-13T03:30:05+00:00	27.3%	2.5%	21.0%	42.5%	46.8%
2026-10-13T04:16:41+00:00	27.3%	2.5%	21.0%	42.5%	46.8%
2026-10-13T05:01:48+00:00	27.3%	2.5%	15.7%	42.5%	46.8%
2026-10-13T05:46:55+00:00	27.3%	2.5%	15.7%	42.5%	46.8%
2026-10-13T06:32:14+00:00	27.3%	2.5%	15.7%	42.5%	46.8%
2026-10-13T07:17:21+00:00	27.3%	2.5%	15.7%	42.5%	46.8%
2026-10-13T08:04:33+00:00	24.9%	2.5%	15.7%	12.3%	29.4%
2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00	24.9%	2.5%	15.7%	12.3%	29.4%
2026-10-13T09:34:48+00:00	24.9%	2.5%	15.7%	12.3%	29.4%
2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00	24.9%	2.5%	15.7%	12.3%	29.4%
2026-10-13T11:05:30+00:00	24.9%	2.1%	11.4%	12.3%	29.4%
2026-10-13T11:50:45+00:00	24.9%	2.1%	11.4%	12.3%	29.4%
2026-10-13T12:35:52+00:00	24.9%	2.1%	11.4%	12.3%	29.4%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	24.9%	2.1%	11.4%	12.3%	29.4%
2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00	17.3%	2.1%	11.5%	12.3%	30.0%
2026-10-13T14:56:07+00:00	17.3%	2.0%	11.5%	12.3%	30.0%
2026-10-13T15:42:00+00:00	17.3%	2.0%	11.5%	12.3%	30.0%
2026-10-13T16:27:06+00:00	17.3%	2.0%	11.5%	12.3%	30.0%
2026-10-13T17:12:15+00:00	17.3%	2.0%	9.5%	12.3%	30.0%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	17.3%	2.0%	9.5%	12.3%	30.0%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	17.3%	2.0%	9.5%	12.3%	30.0%
2026-10-13T19:27:31+00:00	19.8%	2.0%	9.5%	12.3%	30.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:40+00:00	19.8%	2.0%	9.5%	12.3%	30.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:46+00:00	19.8%	2.0%	9.5%	12.3%	30.0%
2026-10-13T21:43:21+00:00	19.8%	2.0%	9.5%	12.3%	30.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:28+00:00	19.8%	2.0%	9.5%	27.6%	30.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:40+00:00	19.8%	2.0%	10.7%	27.6%	30.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:49+00:00	19.8%	2.0%	10.7%	27.6%	30.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:56+00:00	19.8%	2.0%	10.7%	27.6%	30.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:15+00:00	5.2%	2.0%	10.7%	27.6%	30.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:22+00:00	5.2%	2.0%	10.7%	27.6%	30.0%
2026-10-14T03:00:21+00:00	5.2%	2.0%	10.7%	27.6%	30.0%
2026-10-14T03:45:42+00:00	5.2%	2.0%	10.7%	27.6%	30.0%
2026-10-14T04:30:49+00:00	5.2%	2.0%	10.7%	27.6%	30.0%
2026-10-14T05:15:56+00:00	5.2%	2.0%	10.7%	27.6%	30.0%
2026-10-14T06:01:03+00:00	5.2%	2.0%	10.7%	27.6%	30.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:21+00:00	5.2%	2.0%	10.7%	27.6%	30.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:31+00:00	2.0%	2.0%	10.7%	27.6%	16.7%
2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00	2.0%	2.0%	10.7%	27.6%	16.7%
2026-10-14T09:01:50+00:00	2.0%	2.0%	10.7%	27.6%	16.7%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	2.0%	2.0%	10.7%	27.6%	16.7%
2026-10-14T10:35:14+00:00	2.0%	2.0%	10.7%	10.0%	16.7%
2026-10-14T11:21:08+00:00	2.0%	4.6%	0.2%	10.0%	16.7%
2026-10-14T12:06:17+00:00	2.0%	4.6%	0.2%	10.0%	16.7%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	2.0%	4.6%	0.2%	10.0%	16.7%
2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00	2.0%	4.6%	0.2%	10.0%	16.7%
2026-10-14T14:26:54+00:00	2.0%	4.6%	0.2%	10.0%	16.9%
2026-10-14T15:12:51+00:00	2.0%	4.4%	0.2%	10.0%	16.9%
2026-10-14T15:58:00+00:00	2.0%	4.4%	0.2%	10.0%	16.9%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	2.0%	4.4%	0.2%	10.0%	16.9%
2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:00	2.0%	4.4%	0.2%	10.0%	16.9%
2026-10-14T18:13:24+00:00	2.0%	4.4%	0.2%	10.0%	16.9%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	2.0%	4.4%	0.2%	10.0%	16.9%
2026-10-14T19:43:43+00:00	1.6%	4.4%	0.2%	29.0%	12.6%
2026-10-14T20:28:53+00:00	1.6%	4.4%	0.2%	29.0%	12.6%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	1.6%	4.4%	0.2%	29.0%	12.6%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	1.6%	4.4%	0.2%	29.0%	12.6%
2026-10-14T22:44:13+00:00	1.6%	4.4%	0.2%	29.0%	12.6%
2026-10-14T23:29:36+00:00	1.6%	4.4%	0.1%	29.0%	12.6%
2026-10-15T00:15:32+00:00	1.6%	4.4%	0.1%	29.0%	12.6%
2026-10-15T01:01:14+00:00	1.6%	4.4%	0.1%	29.0%	12.6%
2026-10-15T01:46:24+00:00	4.6%	4.4%	0.1%	29.0%	12.6%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	4.6%	4.4%	0.1%	29.0%	12.6%
2026-10-15T03:16:40+00:00	4.6%	4.4%	0.1%	29.0%	12.6%
2026-10-15T04:02:45+00:00	4.6%	4.4%	0.1%	29.0%	12.6%
2026-10-15T04:48:14+00:00	4.6%	4.4%	0.1%	29.0%	12.6%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	4.6%	4.4%	0.3%	29.0%	12.6%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	4.6%	4.4%	0.3%	29.0%	12.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	29%	89.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0841
ICON	13%	85.7°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0159
AIFS Single	5%	84.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.0021
IFS Ensemble	4%	85.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0019
NWS forecast	3%	84.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.0008
National Blend	<1%	83.0°F	3.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0000
WeatherNext 2	<1%	81.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 93°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261019-TMAX-GE93
Opened Oct 12 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Tucson runs hot-for-here: 93°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗