KTUS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

80%

79%

76%

43%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 69.2¢Risks 69.20u

ICONNO 30.8¢Risks 30.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +30.80u · ICON −30.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	60.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	59.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	47.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	56.9%	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	62.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	25.2%	—	—	53.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	46.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	0.0%	37.4%	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	31.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	61.1%	45.1%	0.0%	—	45.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	74.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	27.2%	51.5%	35.0%	—	44.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	34.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	20.0%	30.9%	37.2%	2.5%	—	55.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	14.5%	30.9%	78.8%	—	50.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	35.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	15.7%	9.7%	38.5%	67.0%	—	48.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	4.9%	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	55.2%	29.1%	67.0%	—	32.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	22.2%	57.1%	34.2%	—	—	49.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	33.9%	57.3%	28.2%	85.6%	—	55.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	36.1%	77.6%	40.6%	—	—	63.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	45.1%	80.3%	49.0%	88.9%	—	69.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	29.9%	87.6%	56.0%	—	—	76.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	81.0%	61.2%	96.2%	0.0%	69.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	78.0%	72.1%	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	57.6%	74.5%	95.3%	—	72.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	30.5%	44.4%	79.4%	0.0%	—	75.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	40.8%	46.5%	81.7%	96.0%	0.0%	79.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	71.7%	87.4%	86.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	27.6%	77.3%	88.2%	83.4%	37.7%	58.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	23.8%	69.8%	89.1%	86.5%	—	55.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	66.9%	92.1%	87.4%	36.8%	56.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	80.9%	90.8%	80.9%	—	54.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	29.3%	76.6%	94.5%	60.1%	35.8%	76.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	96.3%	63.3%	—	75.2%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	97.8%	—	11.7%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	95%	92.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	80%	88.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	79%	88.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	76%	88.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	86.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	86.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	43%	84.9°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261020-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 17 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 86°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗