KTUS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

80%

79%

76%

43%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 69.2¢Risks 69.20u

ICONNO 30.8¢Risks 30.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +30.80u · ICON −30.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T15:25:25+00:00	68.0%	73.7%	70.3%	94.4%	85.5%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	68.0%	73.7%	70.3%	94.4%	85.5%
2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00	68.0%	73.7%	51.2%	94.4%	85.5%
2026-10-17T17:40:53+00:00	68.0%	73.7%	51.2%	94.4%	85.5%
2026-10-17T18:26:00+00:00	68.0%	73.7%	51.2%	94.4%	85.5%
2026-10-17T19:11:07+00:00	68.0%	73.7%	51.2%	94.4%	85.5%
2026-10-17T19:56:23+00:00	71.3%	73.7%	51.2%	93.9%	84.9%
2026-10-17T20:41:34+00:00	71.3%	73.7%	51.2%	93.9%	84.9%
2026-10-17T21:26:41+00:00	71.3%	73.7%	51.2%	93.9%	84.9%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	71.3%	73.7%	51.2%	93.9%	84.9%
2026-10-17T22:57:08+00:00	71.3%	73.7%	45.3%	93.9%	84.9%
2026-10-17T23:42:16+00:00	71.3%	73.7%	45.3%	93.9%	84.9%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	71.3%	73.7%	45.3%	93.9%	84.9%
2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00	71.3%	73.7%	45.3%	93.9%	84.9%
2026-10-18T01:58:17+00:00	76.6%	73.7%	45.3%	93.9%	84.9%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	76.6%	73.7%	45.3%	93.9%	84.9%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	76.6%	73.7%	45.3%	93.9%	84.9%
2026-10-18T04:15:07+00:00	76.6%	73.7%	45.3%	93.9%	84.9%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	76.6%	73.7%	82.1%	93.9%	84.9%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	76.6%	73.7%	82.1%	93.9%	84.9%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	76.6%	73.7%	82.1%	93.9%	84.9%
2026-10-18T07:15:41+00:00	76.6%	73.7%	82.1%	93.9%	84.9%
2026-10-18T08:02:04+00:00	72.3%	73.7%	82.1%	96.0%	54.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	72.3%	73.7%	82.1%	96.0%	54.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	72.3%	73.7%	82.1%	96.0%	54.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	72.3%	73.7%	82.1%	96.0%	54.5%
2026-10-18T11:03:07+00:00	72.3%	76.1%	68.6%	96.0%	54.5%
2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00	72.3%	76.1%	68.6%	96.0%	54.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:58+00:00	72.3%	76.1%	68.6%	96.0%	54.5%
2026-10-18T13:19:05+00:00	72.3%	76.1%	68.6%	96.0%	54.5%
2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00	69.8%	75.3%	68.6%	96.0%	54.5%
2026-10-18T14:56:19+00:00	69.8%	75.3%	68.6%	96.0%	54.5%
2026-10-18T15:41:42+00:00	69.8%	76.0%	68.6%	96.0%	54.5%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	69.8%	76.0%	68.6%	96.0%	54.5%
2026-10-18T17:12:12+00:00	69.8%	76.0%	65.1%	96.0%	54.5%
2026-10-18T17:57:42+00:00	69.8%	76.0%	65.1%	96.0%	54.5%
2026-10-18T18:42:50+00:00	69.8%	76.0%	65.1%	96.0%	54.5%
2026-10-18T19:28:03+00:00	77.7%	76.0%	65.1%	95.1%	43.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:11+00:00	77.7%	76.0%	65.1%	95.1%	43.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:21+00:00	77.7%	76.0%	65.1%	95.1%	43.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	77.7%	76.0%	65.1%	95.1%	43.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	77.7%	76.0%	65.1%	95.1%	43.3%
2026-10-18T23:13:47+00:00	77.7%	76.0%	79.0%	95.1%	43.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	77.7%	76.0%	79.0%	95.1%	43.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:12+00:00	77.7%	76.0%	79.0%	95.1%	43.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:41+00:00	79.9%	76.0%	79.0%	95.1%	43.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:50+00:00	79.9%	76.0%	79.0%	95.1%	43.3%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	79.9%	76.0%	79.0%	95.1%	43.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00	79.9%	76.0%	79.0%	95.1%	43.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	95%	92.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	80%	88.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	79%	88.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	76%	88.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	86.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	86.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	43%	84.9°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261020-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 17 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 86°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗