KTUS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST91%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

94%

93%

92%

91%

Consensus

91%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 94.2¢Risks 23.55u

WN2NO 5.8¢Risks 1.45u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +1.45u · WN2 −1.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	85.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	87.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	84.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	41.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	47.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	26.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	52.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	53.8%	—	—	47.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	42.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	34.8%	—	—	75.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	1.1%	3.8%	—	—	45.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	6.5%	11.9%	0.1%	—	50.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	17.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	88.7%	29.1%	84.4%	—	42.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	87.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	87.1%	21.1%	54.6%	—	46.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	28.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	78.2%	90.7%	64.8%	91.3%	—	84.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	80.5%	—	—	84.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	91.3%	85.7%	92.3%	—	90.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	78.6%	49.1%	88.1%	—	—	88.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	86.9%	90.3%	95.7%	—	78.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	73.6%	85.5%	90.8%	—	—	75.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	43.6%	85.6%	19.6%	—	67.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	82.9%	86.8%	70.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	68.7%	84.7%	87.9%	80.3%	—	85.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	42.0%	78.1%	75.9%	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	39.8%	92.2%	68.8%	—	81.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	45.8%	92.0%	—	—	76.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	36.1%	50.0%	89.6%	90.1%	97.7%	91.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	95.5%	0.8%	—	89.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	98%	91.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	87.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	93%	88.7°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	92%	87.9°F	6.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	91%	84.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	79.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261022-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 17 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 80°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗