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KTUS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST91%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
98%
AIFS
94%
ICON
93%
EPS
92%
WN2
91%
Consensus
91%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 94.2¢Risks 23.55u
VS
WN2NO 5.8¢Risks 1.45u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +1.45u · WN2 −1.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 77.3% · 2026-10-17T15:25:27+00:00AIFS Single: 77.3% · 2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00AIFS Single: 77.3% · 2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00AIFS Single: 77.3% · 2026-10-17T17:40:53+00:00AIFS Single: 77.3% · 2026-10-17T18:26:00+00:00AIFS Single: 77.3% · 2026-10-17T19:11:07+00:00AIFS Single: 89.5% · 2026-10-17T19:56:23+00:00AIFS Single: 89.5% · 2026-10-17T20:41:34+00:00AIFS Single: 89.5% · 2026-10-17T21:26:41+00:00AIFS Single: 89.5% · 2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00AIFS Single: 89.5% · 2026-10-17T22:57:08+00:00AIFS Single: 89.5% · 2026-10-17T23:42:16+00:00AIFS Single: 89.5% · 2026-10-18T00:27:29+00:00AIFS Single: 89.5% · 2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00AIFS Single: 94.5% · 2026-10-18T01:58:17+00:00AIFS Single: 94.5% · 2026-10-18T02:43:25+00:00AIFS Single: 94.5% · 2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.8% · 2026-10-17T15:25:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.8% · 2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.8% · 2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.8% · 2026-10-17T17:40:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.8% · 2026-10-17T18:26:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.8% · 2026-10-17T19:11:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.8% · 2026-10-17T19:56:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.8% · 2026-10-17T20:41:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.8% · 2026-10-17T21:26:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.8% · 2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.8% · 2026-10-17T22:57:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.8% · 2026-10-17T23:42:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.8% · 2026-10-18T00:27:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.8% · 2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.8% · 2026-10-18T01:58:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.8% · 2026-10-18T02:43:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.8% · 2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.3% · 2026-10-17T15:25:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.3% · 2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.9% · 2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.9% · 2026-10-17T17:40:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.9% · 2026-10-17T18:26:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.9% · 2026-10-17T19:11:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.9% · 2026-10-17T19:56:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.9% · 2026-10-17T20:41:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.9% · 2026-10-17T21:26:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.9% · 2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.6% · 2026-10-17T22:57:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.6% · 2026-10-17T23:42:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.6% · 2026-10-18T00:27:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.6% · 2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.6% · 2026-10-18T01:58:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.6% · 2026-10-18T02:43:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.6% · 2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00IFS HRES: 89.0% · 2026-10-17T15:25:27+00:00IFS HRES: 89.0% · 2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00IFS HRES: 89.0% · 2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00IFS HRES: 89.0% · 2026-10-17T17:40:53+00:00IFS HRES: 89.0% · 2026-10-17T18:26:00+00:00IFS HRES: 89.0% · 2026-10-17T19:11:07+00:00IFS HRES: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T19:56:23+00:00IFS HRES: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T20:41:34+00:00IFS HRES: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T21:26:41+00:00IFS HRES: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00IFS HRES: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T22:57:08+00:00IFS HRES: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T23:42:16+00:00IFS HRES: 97.8% · 2026-10-18T00:27:29+00:00IFS HRES: 97.8% · 2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00IFS HRES: 97.8% · 2026-10-18T01:58:17+00:00IFS HRES: 97.8% · 2026-10-18T02:43:25+00:00IFS HRES: 97.8% · 2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00ICON: 93.6% · 2026-10-17T15:25:27+00:00ICON: 93.6% · 2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00ICON: 93.6% · 2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00ICON: 93.6% · 2026-10-17T17:40:53+00:00ICON: 93.6% · 2026-10-17T18:26:00+00:00ICON: 93.6% · 2026-10-17T19:11:07+00:00ICON: 93.4% · 2026-10-17T19:56:23+00:00ICON: 93.4% · 2026-10-17T20:41:34+00:00ICON: 93.4% · 2026-10-17T21:26:41+00:00ICON: 93.4% · 2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00ICON: 93.4% · 2026-10-17T22:57:08+00:00ICON: 93.4% · 2026-10-17T23:42:16+00:00ICON: 93.4% · 2026-10-18T00:27:29+00:00ICON: 93.4% · 2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00ICON: 93.4% · 2026-10-18T01:58:17+00:00ICON: 93.4% · 2026-10-18T02:43:25+00:00ICON: 93.4% · 2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:0010-17 15:2510-17 21:2610-18 03:28
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T15:25:27+00:0077.3%91.8%95.3%89.0%93.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:0077.3%91.8%95.3%89.0%93.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:0077.3%91.8%82.9%89.0%93.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:53+00:0077.3%91.8%82.9%89.0%93.6%
2026-10-17T18:26:00+00:0077.3%91.8%82.9%89.0%93.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:07+00:0077.3%91.8%82.9%89.0%93.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:23+00:0089.5%91.8%82.9%97.8%93.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:34+00:0089.5%91.8%82.9%97.8%93.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:41+00:0089.5%91.8%82.9%97.8%93.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:0089.5%91.8%82.9%97.8%93.4%
2026-10-17T22:57:08+00:0089.5%91.8%90.6%97.8%93.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:16+00:0089.5%91.8%90.6%97.8%93.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:29+00:0089.5%91.8%90.6%97.8%93.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:0089.5%91.8%90.6%97.8%93.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:17+00:0094.5%91.8%90.6%97.8%93.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:25+00:0094.5%91.8%90.6%97.8%93.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:0094.5%91.8%90.6%97.8%93.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES98%91.2°F5.8°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
AIFS Single94%87.4°F5.0°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
ICON93%88.7°F6.1°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble92%87.9°F6.0°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 291%84.9°F4.1°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
NWS forecast54%80.0°F5.2°F2026-10-17 14:00Pending
National Blend47%79.0°F6.6°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261022-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 17 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 80°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗