KTUS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 92°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 19:00 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

17%

13%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 9.6¢Risks 4.78u

AIFSNO 90.5¢Risks 45.23u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +45.23u · AIFS −45.23u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	5.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	3.6%	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.9%	—	—	10.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	1.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	16.1%	0.3%	11.7%	—	0.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	13.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	12.2%	0.1%	1.5%	—	0.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	14.0%	2.2%	14.9%	—	8.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	5.5%	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	12.5%	7.4%	13.8%	—	11.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	0.5%	8.2%	—	—	8.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	6.5%	9.0%	17.8%	—	3.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	5.0%	8.5%	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.2%	4.3%	0.0%	—	1.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	4.2%	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	2.9%	4.0%	1.9%	—	3.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.3%	1.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	4.7%	0.5%	—	1.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	3.8%	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	2.1%	2.3%	9.9%	2.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	4.5%	0.0%	—	1.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	17%	86.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	13%	86.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	4%	84.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	85.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	83.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	81.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	<1%	82.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 92°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261022-TMAX-GE92
Opened Oct 15 · 20:06 UTC

Original listing: Tucson runs hot-for-here: 92°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗