KTUS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 92°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 19:00 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

17%

13%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 9.6¢Risks 4.78u

AIFSNO 90.5¢Risks 45.23u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +45.23u · AIFS −45.23u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T19:00:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T20:06:25+00:00	0.0%	15.6%	1.5%	29.8%	5.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:39+00:00	0.0%	15.6%	1.5%	29.8%	5.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	0.0%	15.6%	1.5%	29.8%	5.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:56+00:00	0.0%	15.6%	1.5%	29.8%	5.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:55+00:00	0.2%	15.6%	0.4%	29.8%	5.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:23+00:00	0.2%	15.6%	0.4%	29.8%	5.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:37+00:00	0.2%	15.6%	0.4%	29.8%	5.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00	0.2%	15.6%	0.4%	29.8%	5.4%
2026-10-17T01:40:15+00:00	0.4%	4.6%	1.0%	17.4%	36.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:25+00:00	0.4%	4.6%	1.0%	17.4%	36.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:33+00:00	0.4%	4.6%	1.0%	17.4%	36.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	0.4%	4.6%	1.0%	17.4%	36.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:32+00:00	0.4%	4.6%	3.4%	17.4%	36.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:41+00:00	0.4%	4.6%	3.4%	17.4%	36.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:51+00:00	0.4%	4.6%	3.4%	17.4%	36.8%
2026-10-17T07:45:32+00:00	22.2%	4.6%	3.4%	19.8%	32.7%
2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00	22.2%	4.6%	3.4%	19.8%	32.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00	22.2%	4.6%	3.4%	19.8%	32.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	22.2%	4.6%	3.4%	19.8%	32.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:57+00:00	22.2%	4.6%	3.4%	19.8%	32.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:20+00:00	22.2%	28.9%	10.7%	19.8%	32.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	22.2%	28.9%	10.7%	19.8%	32.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	22.2%	28.9%	10.7%	19.8%	32.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:00	4.7%	28.9%	10.7%	19.8%	32.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	4.7%	28.9%	10.7%	19.9%	33.0%
2026-10-17T15:25:28+00:00	4.7%	27.5%	10.7%	19.9%	33.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	4.7%	27.5%	10.7%	19.9%	33.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00	4.7%	27.5%	2.4%	19.9%	33.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:53+00:00	4.7%	27.5%	2.4%	19.9%	33.0%
2026-10-17T18:26:00+00:00	4.7%	27.5%	2.4%	19.9%	33.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:07+00:00	4.7%	27.5%	2.4%	19.9%	33.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:23+00:00	12.1%	27.5%	2.4%	47.9%	32.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:34+00:00	12.1%	27.5%	2.4%	47.9%	32.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:41+00:00	12.1%	27.5%	2.4%	47.9%	32.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	12.1%	27.5%	2.4%	47.9%	32.4%
2026-10-17T22:57:08+00:00	12.1%	27.5%	5.4%	47.9%	32.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:16+00:00	12.1%	27.5%	5.4%	47.9%	32.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:29+00:00	12.1%	27.5%	5.4%	47.9%	32.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00	12.1%	27.5%	5.4%	47.9%	32.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:17+00:00	20.4%	27.5%	5.4%	47.9%	32.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:25+00:00	20.4%	27.5%	5.4%	47.9%	32.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	20.4%	27.5%	5.4%	47.9%	32.4%
2026-10-18T04:15:08+00:00	20.4%	27.5%	5.4%	47.9%	32.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	20.4%	27.5%	11.7%	47.9%	32.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	20.4%	27.5%	11.7%	47.9%	32.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	20.4%	27.5%	11.7%	47.9%	32.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:41+00:00	20.4%	27.5%	11.7%	47.9%	32.4%
2026-10-18T08:02:04+00:00	19.2%	27.5%	11.7%	10.4%	14.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	19.2%	27.5%	11.7%	10.4%	14.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	19.2%	27.5%	11.7%	10.4%	14.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	19.2%	27.5%	11.7%	10.4%	14.3%
2026-10-18T11:03:07+00:00	19.2%	21.9%	7.0%	10.4%	14.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00	19.2%	21.9%	7.0%	10.4%	14.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:58+00:00	19.2%	21.9%	7.0%	10.4%	14.3%
2026-10-18T13:19:05+00:00	19.2%	21.9%	7.0%	10.4%	14.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00	14.3%	21.9%	7.0%	10.4%	14.3%
2026-10-18T14:56:20+00:00	14.3%	21.9%	7.0%	10.4%	14.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:42+00:00	14.3%	21.1%	7.0%	10.4%	14.3%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	14.3%	21.1%	7.0%	10.4%	14.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:12+00:00	14.3%	21.1%	8.2%	10.4%	14.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:42+00:00	14.3%	21.1%	8.2%	10.4%	14.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:50+00:00	14.3%	21.1%	8.2%	10.4%	14.3%
2026-10-18T19:28:03+00:00	10.3%	21.1%	8.2%	7.5%	1.2%
2026-10-18T20:13:11+00:00	10.3%	21.1%	8.2%	7.5%	1.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:21+00:00	10.3%	21.1%	8.2%	7.5%	1.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	10.3%	21.1%	8.2%	7.5%	1.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	10.3%	21.1%	8.2%	7.5%	1.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:47+00:00	10.3%	21.1%	5.4%	7.5%	1.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	10.3%	21.1%	5.4%	7.5%	1.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:12+00:00	10.3%	21.1%	5.4%	7.5%	1.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:41+00:00	20.4%	21.1%	5.4%	7.5%	1.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:50+00:00	20.4%	21.1%	5.4%	7.5%	1.2%
2026-10-19T03:00:01+00:00	20.4%	21.1%	5.4%	7.5%	1.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00	20.4%	21.1%	5.4%	7.5%	1.2%
2026-10-19T04:31:46+00:00	20.4%	21.1%	5.4%	7.5%	1.2%
2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00	20.4%	21.1%	23.5%	7.5%	1.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00	20.4%	21.1%	23.5%	7.5%	1.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00	20.4%	21.1%	23.5%	7.5%	1.2%
2026-10-19T07:34:08+00:00	9.1%	21.1%	23.5%	12.6%	3.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	9.1%	21.1%	23.5%	12.6%	3.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	9.1%	21.1%	23.5%	12.6%	3.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	9.1%	21.1%	23.5%	12.6%	3.8%
2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:00	9.1%	21.1%	23.5%	12.6%	3.8%
2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:00	9.1%	15.7%	8.6%	12.6%	3.8%
2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00	9.1%	15.7%	8.6%	12.6%	3.8%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	9.1%	15.7%	8.6%	12.6%	3.8%
2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00	2.5%	15.7%	8.6%	12.6%	3.8%
2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00	2.4%	15.7%	8.5%	12.6%	3.8%
2026-10-19T15:14:03+00:00	2.4%	16.7%	8.5%	12.6%	3.8%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	2.4%	16.7%	8.5%	12.6%	3.8%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	2.4%	16.7%	8.5%	12.6%	3.8%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	2.4%	16.7%	3.7%	12.6%	3.8%
2026-10-19T18:14:44+00:00	2.4%	16.7%	3.7%	12.6%	3.8%
2026-10-19T19:00:24+00:00	2.4%	16.7%	3.7%	12.6%	3.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	17%	86.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	13%	86.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	4%	84.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	85.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	83.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	81.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	<1%	82.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 92°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261022-TMAX-GE92
Opened Oct 15 · 20:06 UTC

Original listing: Tucson runs hot-for-here: 92°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗