KTUS / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

78%

75%

59%

56%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 70.7¢Risks 70.70u

AIFSNO 29.3¢Risks 29.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +29.30u · AIFS −29.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	94.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	96.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	96.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	93.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	94.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	87.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	88.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	87.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	84.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	83.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	39.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	20.9%	—	—	86.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	44.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	96.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	76.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	80.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	48.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	10.7%	—	—	72.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	40.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	13.9%	43.3%	—	—	59.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	95.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	63.8%	81.6%	9.6%	—	54.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	86.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	61.6%	44.9%	75.1%	50.7%	—	77.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	59.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	53.8%	78.9%	51.5%	—	81.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	78.3%	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	68.4%	87.3%	75.2%	—	68.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	86.1%	—	—	80.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	81.0%	76.2%	96.1%	74.9%	—	70.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	92.5%	42.4%	92.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	88.2%	86.4%	87.8%	79.2%	—	85.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	79.1%	89.6%	83.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	77.0%	73.4%	86.7%	71.8%	—	88.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	82.9%	74.7%	86.3%	—	—	91.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	81.0%	82.9%	98.5%	87.4%	42.3%	92.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	98.0%	—	—	95.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	86%	79.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	78%	76.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	75%	79.1°F	9.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	59%	74.0°F	6.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	56%	73.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	73.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261023-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 16 · 13:29 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 73°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗