KTUS / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

78%

75%

59%

56%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 70.7¢Risks 70.70u

AIFSNO 29.3¢Risks 29.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +29.30u · AIFS −29.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:29:09+00:00	43.0%	85.5%	78.4%	43.8%	42.8%
2026-10-16T14:20:02+00:00	43.1%	85.5%	78.4%	43.8%	42.8%
2026-10-16T15:05:52+00:00	43.1%	85.9%	78.4%	43.8%	42.8%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	43.1%	85.9%	78.4%	43.8%	42.8%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	43.1%	85.9%	78.4%	43.8%	42.8%
2026-10-16T17:21:34+00:00	43.1%	85.9%	80.6%	43.8%	42.8%
2026-10-16T18:06:40+00:00	43.1%	85.9%	80.6%	43.8%	42.8%
2026-10-16T18:51:47+00:00	43.1%	85.9%	80.6%	43.8%	42.8%
2026-10-16T19:37:20+00:00	52.8%	85.9%	80.6%	43.8%	74.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	52.8%	85.9%	80.6%	43.8%	74.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	52.8%	85.9%	80.6%	43.8%	74.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:57+00:00	52.8%	85.9%	80.6%	43.8%	74.6%
2026-10-16T22:38:12+00:00	52.8%	85.9%	80.6%	59.2%	74.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	52.8%	85.9%	78.4%	59.2%	74.6%
2026-10-17T00:09:46+00:00	52.8%	85.9%	78.4%	59.2%	74.6%
2026-10-17T00:55:02+00:00	52.8%	85.9%	78.4%	59.2%	74.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:15+00:00	55.5%	85.9%	78.4%	59.2%	74.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:25+00:00	55.5%	85.9%	78.4%	59.2%	74.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:33+00:00	55.5%	85.9%	78.4%	59.2%	74.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	55.5%	85.9%	78.4%	59.2%	74.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	86%	79.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	78%	76.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	75%	79.1°F	9.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	59%	74.0°F	6.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	56%	73.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	73.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261023-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 16 · 13:29 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 73°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗