KTUS / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

40%

39%

36%

34%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 41.1¢Risks 20.57u

HRESNO 58.9¢Risks 29.43u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +29.43u · HRES −29.43u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	42.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	15.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	13.3%	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	36.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	—	—	—	53.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	64.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	57.1%	—	—	65.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	54.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	40.6%	0.0%	34.2%	—	—	72.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	66.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	13.4%	33.6%	0.0%	—	70.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	31.0%	65.7%	35.7%	—	60.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	17.4%	41.7%	27.0%	61.3%	—	47.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	59.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	16.9%	36.7%	12.7%	11.9%	33.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	23.7%	—	—	28.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	48%	81.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	81.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	80.3°F	4.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	39%	80.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	36%	79.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	79.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261025-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 82°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗