KTUS / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

40%

39%

36%

34%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 41.1¢Risks 20.57u

HRESNO 58.9¢Risks 29.43u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +29.43u · HRES −29.43u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:31:48+00:00	53.5%	52.7%	72.1%	91.4%	43.3%
2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00	53.5%	52.7%	69.5%	91.4%	43.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00	53.5%	52.7%	69.5%	91.4%	43.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00	53.5%	52.7%	69.5%	91.4%	43.3%
2026-10-19T07:34:10+00:00	50.7%	52.7%	69.5%	67.5%	55.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	50.7%	52.7%	69.5%	67.5%	55.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	50.7%	52.7%	69.5%	67.5%	55.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	50.7%	52.7%	69.5%	67.5%	55.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:00	50.7%	52.7%	69.5%	67.5%	55.6%
2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:00	50.7%	33.0%	61.8%	67.5%	55.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00	50.7%	33.0%	61.8%	67.5%	55.6%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	50.7%	33.0%	61.8%	67.5%	55.6%
2026-10-19T13:37:09+00:00	47.8%	33.0%	61.8%	67.5%	55.6%
2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00	47.8%	33.0%	61.8%	67.6%	55.0%
2026-10-19T15:14:04+00:00	47.8%	34.2%	61.8%	67.6%	55.0%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	47.8%	34.2%	61.8%	67.6%	55.0%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	47.8%	34.2%	61.8%	67.6%	55.0%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	47.8%	34.2%	75.3%	67.6%	55.0%
2026-10-19T18:14:44+00:00	47.8%	34.2%	75.3%	67.6%	55.0%
2026-10-19T19:00:24+00:00	47.8%	34.2%	75.3%	67.6%	55.0%
2026-10-19T19:45:34+00:00	43.4%	34.2%	75.3%	67.0%	63.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:43+00:00	43.4%	34.2%	75.3%	67.0%	63.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	43.4%	34.2%	75.3%	67.0%	63.7%
2026-10-19T22:01:06+00:00	43.4%	34.2%	75.3%	67.0%	63.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:22+00:00	43.4%	34.2%	75.3%	67.0%	63.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:32+00:00	43.4%	34.2%	55.1%	67.0%	63.7%
2026-10-20T00:17:12+00:00	43.4%	34.2%	55.1%	67.0%	63.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:41+00:00	43.4%	34.2%	55.1%	67.0%	63.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:52+00:00	28.3%	34.2%	55.1%	67.0%	63.7%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	28.3%	34.2%	55.1%	67.0%	63.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	28.3%	34.2%	55.1%	67.0%	63.7%
2026-10-20T04:06:03+00:00	28.3%	34.2%	55.1%	67.0%	63.7%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	28.3%	34.2%	55.1%	67.0%	63.7%
2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00	28.3%	34.2%	46.6%	67.0%	63.7%
2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:00	28.3%	34.2%	46.6%	67.0%	63.7%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	28.3%	34.2%	46.6%	67.0%	63.7%
2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:00	48.4%	34.2%	46.6%	67.0%	36.5%
2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00	48.4%	34.2%	46.6%	67.0%	36.5%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00	48.4%	34.2%	46.6%	67.0%	36.5%
2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00	48.4%	34.2%	46.6%	67.0%	36.5%
2026-10-20T10:54:35+00:00	48.4%	40.1%	39.4%	33.9%	36.5%
2026-10-20T11:39:50+00:00	48.4%	40.1%	39.4%	33.9%	36.5%
2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00	48.4%	40.1%	39.4%	33.9%	36.5%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	48.4%	40.1%	39.4%	33.9%	36.5%
2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00	48.4%	40.1%	39.4%	33.9%	36.5%
2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00	48.4%	40.1%	39.4%	33.9%	36.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	48%	81.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	81.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	80.3°F	4.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	39%	80.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	36%	79.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	79.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261025-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 82°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗