KTUS / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST8%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

33%

33%

23%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 17.1¢Risks 17.10u

ICONNO 82.9¢Risks 82.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +82.90u · ICON −82.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	7.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	5.8%	—	9.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	10.4%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	21.5%	—	0.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	11.6%	—	14.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	20.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	14.1%	—	22.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	29.7%	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	0.0%	4.0%	5.0%	19.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	7.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	33%	87.0°F	5.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	86.6°F	6.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	23%	85.8°F	5.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	9%	83.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	3%	81.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	1%	66.6°F	10.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261027-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: Tucson runs hot-for-here: 90°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗