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KTUS / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST8%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
33%
HRES
33%
WN2
23%
EPS
9%
ICON
1%
Consensus
8%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 17.1¢Risks 17.10u
VS
ICONNO 82.9¢Risks 82.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +82.90u · ICON −82.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 33.2% · 2026-10-20T10:54:36+00:00AIFS Single: 33.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:50+00:00AIFS Single: 33.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00AIFS Single: 33.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00AIFS Single: 33.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00AIFS Single: 33.1% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.2% · 2026-10-20T10:54:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.2% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.4% · 2026-10-20T10:54:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.4% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00IFS HRES: 32.6% · 2026-10-20T10:54:36+00:00IFS HRES: 32.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:50+00:00IFS HRES: 32.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00IFS HRES: 32.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS HRES: 32.6% · 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00IFS HRES: 32.6% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-20T10:54:36+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:50+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:0010-20 10:5410-20 13:1010-20 14:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:54:36+00:0033.2%9.2%23.4%32.6%1.1%
2026-10-20T11:39:50+00:0033.2%9.2%23.4%32.6%1.1%
2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:0033.2%9.2%23.4%32.6%1.1%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:0033.2%9.2%23.4%32.6%1.1%
2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:0033.1%9.2%23.4%32.6%1.1%
2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:0033.1%9.2%23.4%32.6%1.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single33%87.0°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES33%86.6°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 223%85.8°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble9%83.4°F4.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend3%81.0°F4.4°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON1%66.6°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261027-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: Tucson runs hot-for-here: 90°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗